Mike: This is great but I think that you're looking at this wrong. You're treating the bombing as if it were a military act done for military purposes related to some actual objective. I don't think that's even close. My take is that the bombing was the desperate act of a terminally broken and utterly deviant personality, who tragically has the power to order such things, and that the only objective was subjective: he needs to be seen as dominant, and things aren't going that well for him here at the moment. The Supreme Court and Congress may be tame, but that was a disappointing parade and a lousy birthday party and the ICE gestapo is a transparent and offensive farce and the Big Beautiful Bill is 0-for-3, and so on. So, the true test of the success of the bombing is whether it made him feel any better.
Can you provide sources for your reports on LiDAR reconnaissance ?
LiDAR is not useful for deep penetration in dense rock structures. Very useful to look thru the forest canopy for ancient pyramids but 300 feet of rock ?
Sowing these seeds of doubt and negativism will never germinate when the author is out his depth of expertise.
For terrestrial LiDAR:
Limited penetration:
LiDAR primarily measures the surface and cannot penetrate deeply into the ground or through dense materials like rock or thick soil.
Surface mapping:
LiDAR is best suited for creating detailed topographic maps of the Earth's surface and features.
Factors affecting depth:
The depth to which LiDAR can "see" depends on factors like the material's density, moisture content, and the type of LiDAR system used.
A small team of seismic specialists could easlly conduct a survey on the ground to see if underground caverns still exist. Just need the team and equipment to do the work. Iran itself has the men and equipment for this type of survey.
I wouldn’t expect much from thermal surveys as the materials and equipment would not generate much heat without a source of oxygen for combustion.
HI Peter -- see the comments below. I thought the piece was pretty clear about how LIDAR was working here. I provided sourcing in another comment somewhere down near the beginning. I guess the big thing that happened since I wrote this and you wrote your comment is that now there's an actual intelligence assessment that backs up what I reported here. The only ones seeming to deny it are Trump and Karoline Leavitt.
In this piece I didn’t see any suggestion that LIDAR could penetrate the surface. The claim is that LIDAR can measure very small changes in the surface resulting from internal collapse.
Thank Michael, great analysis as we learned something new today: LIDAR.
That said, everything I’ve read so far, coupled with lots of experience from watching the news coverage, and the outcomes of our Afghan and Iraq wars; have bestowed on me a wisdom that definitely eludes Trump, and his entire cabinet; common sense, which in the MAGAverse, is extremely uncommon.
Bottom line: most of our complex weapon systems never works as advertised, and the initial analysis always works in favor of the president. What’s different today, is no one trusts the words of this administration, so for the second time in modern history (if you don’t count Nixon), we are skeptical of the president, his administration, as well as his intentions.
Although in fairness, no other presidency ever hired a complete and utter disaster of unqualified sycophants for his entire cabinet. Seriously, WTF???
the Trinity & Nagasaki Bombs used less than 15 pounds of Plutonium each. Iran could get that off eBay.
Russia took 1500 Soviet warheads from Ukraine in 1994 in exchange for guaranteeing the peace. Putin could hand a few to Iran on a whim tomorrow.
there are 400+ atomic reactors operating worldwide. Iran---or any terrorist group---could hit any one of them with a single drone & create another Chernobyl/Fukushima.
one nuke could forever irradiate all of Israel. there's nothing stopping Iran or anyone else from doing it right now.
Dear Urban Hermit, I found some outrageous videos showing the ‘ICE’ kidnappers in action at a car wash. You are right. Doesn’t look like official agency people at all. In the video, the woman manager uses only her words to scare them/humiliate them until they leave her workers alone. (Sorry, I couldn’t figure out how to reply to your last reply to my reply!)
Someone just sent me a citizen video of another ice raid. These guys don't look official at all. The only piece of official gear they are wearing is a bulletproof vest -- everything else, they look like guys from a biker club or something. I'm really wondering about this.
Thanks for the question. The raw sensor feeds like Lidar and seismic readings aren’t published in real time, but a fair amount of analysis derived from those sources is publicly available. For example, the Institute for Science and International Security has released a preliminary satellite-based bomb damage assessment here:
In addition, OSINT accounts such as @OSINTdefender (https://x.com/Sentinel_OSINT) and @IntelWalrus (https://x.com/intelwalrus) have been aggregating and interpreting commercial satellite imagery and expert commentary.
Major outlets like the New York Times and Wall Street Journal have also cited defense analysts noting that while entrances were targeted, there is little evidence so far that the deeply buried centrifuge halls were destroyed. The IAEA has confirmed there has been no radiation release, which is another public-facing data point supporting the conclusion that the uranium stockpile was removed and the core chambers remain intact.
So while the raw technical streams aren’t open to the public, the interpretations and key findings are very much available through reputable public channels. Happy to share more if helpful.
Based on this reporting it is apparent that they did not eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat and Israel is well aware of that fact. Also it proves that Bunker Busters are not as effective as previously thought as the offensive tool of choice for deep underground installations and Iran is well aware of that fact.
Well....everything I read before the strike said that the bunker busters probably wouldn't quite get the job done, and they didn't. The weird part (maybe not) is that Trump thought they would, when all the experts were saying it's just too deep, you'll damage but you won't destroy.
The effectiveness of earth penetators depends on a number of factors. High on the list is soil composition, not only as a factor in how deep the weapon goes, but in terms of how well the shock wave is transmitted to/through the underground structures. I would be very surprised if the Iranians hadn't accounted for such issues when they built the facilities.
Mike: This is great but I think that you're looking at this wrong. You're treating the bombing as if it were a military act done for military purposes related to some actual objective. I don't think that's even close. My take is that the bombing was the desperate act of a terminally broken and utterly deviant personality, who tragically has the power to order such things, and that the only objective was subjective: he needs to be seen as dominant, and things aren't going that well for him here at the moment. The Supreme Court and Congress may be tame, but that was a disappointing parade and a lousy birthday party and the ICE gestapo is a transparent and offensive farce and the Big Beautiful Bill is 0-for-3, and so on. So, the true test of the success of the bombing is whether it made him feel any better.
You may be on to something. ;-)
Can you provide sources for your reports on LiDAR reconnaissance ?
LiDAR is not useful for deep penetration in dense rock structures. Very useful to look thru the forest canopy for ancient pyramids but 300 feet of rock ?
Sowing these seeds of doubt and negativism will never germinate when the author is out his depth of expertise.
For terrestrial LiDAR:
Limited penetration:
LiDAR primarily measures the surface and cannot penetrate deeply into the ground or through dense materials like rock or thick soil.
Surface mapping:
LiDAR is best suited for creating detailed topographic maps of the Earth's surface and features.
Factors affecting depth:
The depth to which LiDAR can "see" depends on factors like the material's density, moisture content, and the type of LiDAR system used.
A small team of seismic specialists could easlly conduct a survey on the ground to see if underground caverns still exist. Just need the team and equipment to do the work. Iran itself has the men and equipment for this type of survey.
I wouldn’t expect much from thermal surveys as the materials and equipment would not generate much heat without a source of oxygen for combustion.
HI Peter -- see the comments below. I thought the piece was pretty clear about how LIDAR was working here. I provided sourcing in another comment somewhere down near the beginning. I guess the big thing that happened since I wrote this and you wrote your comment is that now there's an actual intelligence assessment that backs up what I reported here. The only ones seeming to deny it are Trump and Karoline Leavitt.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/early-us-intel-assessment-suggests-strikes-iran-did-not-destroy-nuclear-sites-2025-06-24/ Anyway, you're a science based guy and I appreciate that. I am too. I'm not being a nattering nabob of negativism, just calling balls and strikes. ;-)
I would imagine that lidar is looking for surface deformations as evidence of deep chamber collapse.
In this piece I didn’t see any suggestion that LIDAR could penetrate the surface. The claim is that LIDAR can measure very small changes in the surface resulting from internal collapse.
Thank you. ;-) Peter is an old friend and keeps me on my toes.
Thank Michael, great analysis as we learned something new today: LIDAR.
That said, everything I’ve read so far, coupled with lots of experience from watching the news coverage, and the outcomes of our Afghan and Iraq wars; have bestowed on me a wisdom that definitely eludes Trump, and his entire cabinet; common sense, which in the MAGAverse, is extremely uncommon.
Bottom line: most of our complex weapon systems never works as advertised, and the initial analysis always works in favor of the president. What’s different today, is no one trusts the words of this administration, so for the second time in modern history (if you don’t count Nixon), we are skeptical of the president, his administration, as well as his intentions.
Although in fairness, no other presidency ever hired a complete and utter disaster of unqualified sycophants for his entire cabinet. Seriously, WTF???
the Trinity & Nagasaki Bombs used less than 15 pounds of Plutonium each. Iran could get that off eBay.
Russia took 1500 Soviet warheads from Ukraine in 1994 in exchange for guaranteeing the peace. Putin could hand a few to Iran on a whim tomorrow.
there are 400+ atomic reactors operating worldwide. Iran---or any terrorist group---could hit any one of them with a single drone & create another Chernobyl/Fukushima.
one nuke could forever irradiate all of Israel. there's nothing stopping Iran or anyone else from doing it right now.
Anyway, Iran got their sites tested for free, and now know that they are bombproof.
Dear Urban Hermit, I found some outrageous videos showing the ‘ICE’ kidnappers in action at a car wash. You are right. Doesn’t look like official agency people at all. In the video, the woman manager uses only her words to scare them/humiliate them until they leave her workers alone. (Sorry, I couldn’t figure out how to reply to your last reply to my reply!)
Someone just sent me a citizen video of another ice raid. These guys don't look official at all. The only piece of official gear they are wearing is a bulletproof vest -- everything else, they look like guys from a biker club or something. I'm really wondering about this.
I can find no open source data providing the intelligence you note. Is what you are discussing publically available? Thanks
Thanks for the question. The raw sensor feeds like Lidar and seismic readings aren’t published in real time, but a fair amount of analysis derived from those sources is publicly available. For example, the Institute for Science and International Security has released a preliminary satellite-based bomb damage assessment here:
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/early-bomb-damage-assessment-of-fordow-and-natanz-nuclear-sites
In addition, OSINT accounts such as @OSINTdefender (https://x.com/Sentinel_OSINT) and @IntelWalrus (https://x.com/intelwalrus) have been aggregating and interpreting commercial satellite imagery and expert commentary.
Major outlets like the New York Times and Wall Street Journal have also cited defense analysts noting that while entrances were targeted, there is little evidence so far that the deeply buried centrifuge halls were destroyed. The IAEA has confirmed there has been no radiation release, which is another public-facing data point supporting the conclusion that the uranium stockpile was removed and the core chambers remain intact.
So while the raw technical streams aren’t open to the public, the interpretations and key findings are very much available through reputable public channels. Happy to share more if helpful.
Many thanks! It seems, however, that ISIS has removed the page from their site. Maybe it's being revised - or I missed it. Anyway, thanks again
Based on this reporting it is apparent that they did not eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat and Israel is well aware of that fact. Also it proves that Bunker Busters are not as effective as previously thought as the offensive tool of choice for deep underground installations and Iran is well aware of that fact.
Well....everything I read before the strike said that the bunker busters probably wouldn't quite get the job done, and they didn't. The weird part (maybe not) is that Trump thought they would, when all the experts were saying it's just too deep, you'll damage but you won't destroy.
The effectiveness of earth penetators depends on a number of factors. High on the list is soil composition, not only as a factor in how deep the weapon goes, but in terms of how well the shock wave is transmitted to/through the underground structures. I would be very surprised if the Iranians hadn't accounted for such issues when they built the facilities.
If the Iranians weren't aware before, they are now.
“Yesterday, U.S. reconnaissance aircraft equipped with Lidar mapping systems conducted high-resolution scans over the Fordow and Natanz sites.”
Are you really suggesting Iran would let US aircraft leisurely cruise around near Teheran and do a Lidar reconnaissance?
What a fantasy
Interested in the response to Pat A.’ Question. An excellent roundup.