A Deeper Look (Literally): What Trump's “Big Strike” Did and Did Not Achieve

Lidar, Seismic, and Infrared Drones Provide Clear Bomb Damage Assessment

In the last 24 hours there has been a whirlwind of kabuki “attacks”, ceasefires, political back-and-forth, and presidential outbursts, all of which distract from the core issue that we were looking at closely 24 hours ago — what did the bombing achieve? For this post I will stay focused on the original question: what did the U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities actually accomplish? New technical data in the last 24 hours—drawing on Lidar, seismic sensors, and infrared surveillance—offers a nuanced appraisal which I’ve summarized below.

What Lidar Remote Sensing Can Tell Us

Lidar—short for Light Detection and Ranging—is a remote sensing technology that uses laser light to measure distances with extreme precision. It works by sending out rapid pulses of laser light (typically from aircraft, drones, or satellites) and measuring the time it takes for the light to bounce back after hitting a surface. These measurements are then used to generate detailed 3D maps of the ground and structures.

When processed, the data creates highly accurate elevation models or topographic maps. Lidar can reveal even subtle shifts in terrain—like a collapsed tunnel entrance, freshly disturbed soil, or changes in surface geometry that wouldn’t be visible to ordinary cameras or radar.

Lidar is used to assess bomb damage, map underground facility entrances, detect structural shifts in hidden installations, and sometimes even spot camouflaged or buried objects. It’s especially valuable when paired with other data like seismic or infrared signals.

In the case of the Iran strike, Lidar would help U.S. analysts detect whether access shafts or ventilation systems were destroyed, and whether any substructure beneath the hardened sites shifted due to the bombing.

A Technological Cold Light on the Damage

Lidar Results Show the Nuclear Halls Remain Intact

Yesterday, U.S. reconnaissance aircraft equipped with Lidar mapping systems conducted high-resolution scans over the Fordow and Natanz sites. The results confirmed what had been previousl suspected: There are ground craters marking entrance-point blows, but no evidence of large-scale collapse—no mountain-wide subsidence or internal cave-ins. In other words, based on the lidar results, it is now a virtual certainty that the deeply buried nuclear halls remain intact under hundreds of meters of rock. This was what experts who are skeptical of the “bunker buster” bomb’s capabilities to reach and destroy the chambers had expected going in — now it’s confirmed. The deeply buried chambers are intact.

Seismic Sensors Show Lack of Deep Structural Disruption

Simultaneously, seismic sensors stationed in the region captured tremors consistent with surface-impact strikes around 80 to 120 meters deep. Importantly, these tremors lacked signs of deep structural disruption. This is another sign that while access tunnels may have been collapsed, the core core chambers were not obliterated and are largely intact.

Infrared Drones Show Heat Has Dissipated, Suggesting no Deep Fires

A third measurement that is relevant comes from infrared drones. These drones measure thermal heat signatures. These appear to have faded within 48 hours. That pattern is typical of surface-level damage—blast craters and destroyed sheds—not sustained underground burn that nuclear equipment destruction would produce, and which would cause thermal imaging to registere sustained heat over a longer period of time. In short, there is no deep, below surface fire smoldering and producing heat in the core chambers.

No Radiation Release Detected, Reinforcing Containment Integrity

Complementing the Lidar, seismic, and infrared findings, atmospheric monitoring stations operated by the U.S. Department of Energy and allied intelligence services have detected no release of ionizing radiation in the aftermath of the strike. These stations, some mobile and some fixed—including sensors on high-altitude aircraft, drones, and satellites—continuously sample the atmosphere for traces of radioactive isotopes such as xenon-133 and iodine-131, which would indicate a breach in nuclear containment. None have been observed. This strongly supports the conclusion that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile was not struck, and that the containment of nuclear material within the subterranean facilities remains uncompromised — and/or stockpiles were removed from the danger area in advance. Additionally, this absence of radioactive emission further suggests that no centrifuge cascades were catastrophically destroyed in a manner that would release radioactive particulates.

What This Adds Up To

Pulling these strands together, a clearer picture emerges: the strikes were significant, but the main result seems to be that the access tunnels appear to have sealed off. There is no evidence that the deep chambers were collapsed or destroyed. Specifically, all of the available evidence—which has grown considerably in the last 24 hours—indicates that the subterranean centrifuge halls appear to be untouched, still hidden and potentially operable once access is restored.

That means the U.S. delivered a knockdown but not a knockout blow. The bombs assuredly did not deliver a crippling blow to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure—rather a temporary setback was delivered that Iran could potentially remedy with engineering resources, equipment, and time, once the political spotlight shifts again.