I hear ya. The 'voices of outrage' are many, and I read them and worry a lot. But my thought is I'm better off staying in my lane here and just try to deliver some balanced, non-partisan analysis that reflects the way we would gather and analyze information in the intelligence world. Sometimes it does feel like I should be screaming about bigger issues but so far i'm not.
As another former career intelligence officer, I found the Signal conversation infuriating in itself. It’s the worst kind of breach of operational security. But even more infuriating has been the Administration’s response to try to dissemble and downplay the incident while clearly signaling that they have zero interest to undertake a serious review either to hold individuals accountable or learn from the incident to try to avoid similar future incidents like this.
As you point out, our adversaries spend billions to obtain this kind of information, as do we. The reckless, arrogant, and willfully ignorant approach the current national security leadership group displayed in this instance bodes poorly for maintaining the security of sensitive US operations, sources and methods going forward.
Meanwhile, we have presented a soft and lucrative collection target for the intelligence agencies in Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and everywhere else that would seek to gain information advantage over the U.S. At some point, the U.S. will pay a price for this and we may be very unhappy about the cost.
The officials in this chat—Hegseth, Rubio, Ratcliffe, Gabbard, and others—aren’t amateurs. They know the rules. They understand the limits of what should and shouldn’t be discussed outside of official channels. And yet, they chose to coordinate through a platform that ensured nothing would be preserved or subject to oversight.
Agreed! Although, I would posit, it’s by design. They couldn’t care less about National Security; it’s about getting their agenda accomplished. Additionally, the rules don’t apply to them, and if you’re thinking Bondi or Patel will be spearheading an independent investigations; think again.
They’ll probably start an investigation into Goldberg, for leaking classified information, which the administration refuses to admit is classified. And within a month these clowns will be cleared, and handed the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Okay, maybe it will take six months for the medals, but they’re coming!
Furthermore, this will be a controlled investigation, tailored to make sure it goes nowhere, and all the players are cleared. This will be the FBI Kavanaugh Supreme Court investigation on Steroids:
“If the goal was to bypass National Security Council protocols, limit internal dissent, or shield conversations from scrutiny—then we’re no longer talking about sloppy decision-making. We’re talking about a shadow decision-making process: a backchannel that functioned not just as a workaround, but as the primary venue for planning military action.”
You asked, “Was this an accident or a feature”? In my opinion, it was by design. Trump stole Top Secret documents during his first term. He sent an armed mob to the Capitol; to overturn an election. He sent fake electors to Congress. He tried to extort a foreign leader and several Secretaries of State for votes, and to conjure up fake investigations against his adversaries. What was the penalty? ZILCH! NADA!
Instead, we had a Republican Party rallying behind this man, and they are supposed to be the National Security Party; strong on defense, who protect this nation.
Then we had a Supreme Court that slow rolled two legitimate investigations which could have landed Trump in jail! Yet, instead, they gave him immunity from being held to account, for his past actions, and future actions as the 47th president; for a second time!
“We’re talking about a shadow decision-making process: a backchannel that functioned not just as a workaround, but as the primary venue for planning military action.”
So yes Michael, the above statement is correct, with a few caveats! In my opinion, you’re viewing this the wrong way! You’re assuming the system itself hasn’t be fully corrupted; it most definitely has (in my opinion)! And what Trump and his minions understand, which apparently eludes the rest of us, is the fact that they have already won.
Sure, these people are incompetent, but they are the distraction. There are competent people behind the scenes. And as the complicit MSM continues to focus on the “low hanging fruit,” our country has lost all its checks and balances, and no longer has a rule of law. Our institutions and agencies have been decimated.
Has anyone considered that what’s happening at Social Security may not be just about paying seniors their benefits?
For example, we all need a social security number for work and ID’s; even getting a drivers license. And apparently, they are closing most of the SS offices around the country. Therefore, how easy would it be to make sure the system doesn’t work for minorities, people living in democratic areas around the country, or for any group that isn’t in their corner?
Republicans are changing voter laws and once they screw up the system beyond repair, there’s no one to fix the errors, or it will be outsourced to a contractor who is aligned with the Trump and MAGA. So Who’s going to investigate these people, and hold them to account. Exactly!
In fact, they will be able to steal elections, without rigging the election. They just legally exclude the right people, in the right counties, in specific swing states, and it’s done!
Bottom line: There is no cavalry coming to save us. There isn’t a White Knight coming to our rescue. And whether there is outrage by the majority of people going forward, we may not even have free and fair elections going forward, so it just might be a moot point.
Remember when Trump said at many of his rally’s, “vote in this election, because after this, you won’t have to ever vote again? Perhaps, it wasn’t just a cognitive impaired, delusional man talking smack; but perhaps a harbinger of things to come, because the outcome had already been decided! Its just the rest of us never got the MEMO!
Robert, I appreciate Michael Sellers' very measured professional analysis of the immediate subject of this breach of intelligence.
Your pulling back and integrating it into the greater context of politics as it currently stands reinforces my confirmation biases.
If we assume we are in the midst of a coup de etat, and I am fairly certain we ARE... the current fiasco takes on an entirely different meaning.
Was it intentional? What purpose could there be to include the editor of The Atlantic? Is it to demonstrate the strength and depth of the coup?
Is it to test immunity to the rules as we previously understood them?
My cynicism and skeptical nature always makes me suspicious of anything related to Trump, from his boasts about elections to his denials about project 2025.
As MD Sellers has pointed out, Trump is at the very least, a useful fool.
That he has been played as such by the rich and powerful, foreign and domestic, only increases my alarm.
And don’t get me wrong. I appreciate Michael’s newsletter and like love it; however, like you, I’m skeptical of anything to do with Trump at this point, and I don’t think we’re being paranoid to have this set of beliefs. I’m done giving him, or his cabal of nefarious actors the benefit of the doubt: That ship has LONG sailed!
Bottom line: There is too much evidence that points to him being either a “useful idiot” or happy comrade to Putin! Either way, it’s like watching g a slow motion train wreck in real-time, and it’s more than disheartening, to say the least (being extremely diplomatic)!
That said, Michael is extremely measured and methodical, which is why he’s greatly appreciated, and his newsletter timely. Me; not so much!…:)
i think we have a good system here -- I stay in my lane and we have thoughtful commenters who can explore the 'where does this leave us?" questions. I have thoughts in that realm but if i start pushing a particular "theory of the case" prematurely it undermines the investigation - confirmation bias and all that. So i thinkk it's good for me to stay in my lane but there are adjacent lanes where others can take it a few steps further.
Bill is right, your newsletter is extremely measured, and your analysis is spot on. I believe in your profession you call it a slam dunk, whenever you have “a high degree of confidence; not a 100% absolute certainty in an outcome or event.
That said, in my mind, whenever something of the Yemen debacles occur, or they attack Social Security, or USAID; I automatically believe with a high degree of confidence, that it’s always much worse than we can ever imagine.
And as the wise man once said, you’re not paranoid, if they’re really out to get you!”…:)
Robert Jaffee “There are none so blind as those who do not see”. (Or don’t want to see). You must have been pulling your hair out like many watching all this coming down.
Everything we have seen up until now going right back to the first secret Trump/Putin meeting, where no notes were taken, shows the American people are the ones left out of the picture. You did an excellent job of putting it all together. Thank you!
I spent over 30 years in federal law enforcement, a lot of that in counterintelligence and other national security matters. For good reasons, namely to protect information, people, and operations there are certain ways to communicate. Signal isn’t one of them. I suspect this was done because those involved just couldn’t be bothered with doing it the right way. Using a secure method is too inconvenient and not having a record isn’t a bad thing they figured. The root cause is arrogance, incompetence, and their distain for pesky public record laws and government procedures. This incident is not unlike Hilary Clinton’s e-mail server, classified documents at Margo Largo, or Petreaus sharing classified with his biographer. It seems security is a nuisance for seniors in our government. Truth is when security breaks down weapon systems can be defeated, strategies can be countered, missions can fail, and sometimes people die. None of the people in the Signal chat are intelligence professionals, and you can tell. There was no adult in the room.
Michael, I’ve been enjoying your work for a good few weeks now and wanted to thank you for your immensely analytical, factual, and non-partisan analyses of these situations. I’ve saved this article for myself to read as a sanity check; I also peruse a little bit of social media and I’m fully confident that the bots will be clouding the narrative shortly.
I’m also aware that whether I like it or not, this will have an impact on my psyche and my interpretation of this event. Thus, I look forward to rereading this post in the future to remind me of reality, as many times as needed.
You’re doing much-needed work and making an impact where it counts. Thank you.
how did Goldberg come to be in Waltz's contacts? He typed 'jg' or 'j' and it autofilled Goldberg's address and he didn't check it. But who did he intend to include?
Mike, this is great, thank you. The most fascinating thing about this from my perspective has been the aggressive and transparently false reaction from everybody not named Goldberg, which collectively amounts to a confession. Hard not to recall that the entire Secret Service wiped its phones and lost its memory on January 7, 2021.
Vance et al. really seem to think they can pull the wool over the World's eyes, that they are the smartest kids in the room, and that Europe (and all the rest of us) are easily manipulated. Fortunately for us, Goldberg's inadvertent inclusion in the Signal chat unveiled the arrogance, malignancy, and incompetence of Trump's crew -- just as yesterday's congressional hearings revealed their mendacity.
If I was a member of that Signal group, I would be wondering who invited a prominent journalist to join and what their motive was.
Could it be that there was an “honest” member of that group chat who deliberately set out to sabotage and expose their illegal and dangerous backchannel? If so, kudos to whoever it was.
Good question. It would certainly need to be done by someone smarter than the yahoos on the chat. My money is on Waltz’s deputy or staffer. I can see him handing them his phone and saying “set up a chat, I’m busy” (or stupid). We all saw what happened to Vindman when he spoke up, whistle blowers have to be careful!
Yes, our very own Deep Throat. Someone certainly on the inside. Too coincidental. Especially with Musk’s leaked news of top secret briefing a few days ago. I always like this part of the movie where the truth starts to appear.
The fact that the top brass uses Signal as a standard method for communication is at itself form of classified information. And according to Gabbard that it is preinstalled on all phones.
There are also too many people in the chat, with no apparent role.
I read the extended extract on CNN, and in consists of a first part on if they should strike now or later, but without details. Then Hegseth get a go ahead, and come back with a detailed timetable. Clearly he is carried away with the powers he has. That is very top secret at the time.
Waltz messages on the whereabouts of the target, and that is still classified. Is it a local, a drone or where does the exact information come from?
Is it likely that an editor from a left-center major publication was added by accident? Or, is it much more likely that either an internal party with access to to his phone, or an external agency with ability to apply hacking techniques to his phone altered a benign contact to point to Goldberg’s number? The effect of this addition is a very predictable embarrassing exposure of the administration’s techniques and decision making. TL;DR. An accidental addition of Goldberg? Really?
'Speaking Wednesday during a briefing at the White House, press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Witkoff did not have his personal device or his government-issued phone with him in Moscow. She said he was given access to a "classified protected server by the United States government, and he was very careful about his communications when he was in Russia."'
I hear ya. The 'voices of outrage' are many, and I read them and worry a lot. But my thought is I'm better off staying in my lane here and just try to deliver some balanced, non-partisan analysis that reflects the way we would gather and analyze information in the intelligence world. Sometimes it does feel like I should be screaming about bigger issues but so far i'm not.
As another former career intelligence officer, I found the Signal conversation infuriating in itself. It’s the worst kind of breach of operational security. But even more infuriating has been the Administration’s response to try to dissemble and downplay the incident while clearly signaling that they have zero interest to undertake a serious review either to hold individuals accountable or learn from the incident to try to avoid similar future incidents like this.
As you point out, our adversaries spend billions to obtain this kind of information, as do we. The reckless, arrogant, and willfully ignorant approach the current national security leadership group displayed in this instance bodes poorly for maintaining the security of sensitive US operations, sources and methods going forward.
Meanwhile, we have presented a soft and lucrative collection target for the intelligence agencies in Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and everywhere else that would seek to gain information advantage over the U.S. At some point, the U.S. will pay a price for this and we may be very unhappy about the cost.
It is the "pay the price" part that really worries me.
Why would they review or investigate something they did on purpose? See Project 2025z. They are all drunk on power.
The officials in this chat—Hegseth, Rubio, Ratcliffe, Gabbard, and others—aren’t amateurs. They know the rules. They understand the limits of what should and shouldn’t be discussed outside of official channels. And yet, they chose to coordinate through a platform that ensured nothing would be preserved or subject to oversight.
Agreed! Although, I would posit, it’s by design. They couldn’t care less about National Security; it’s about getting their agenda accomplished. Additionally, the rules don’t apply to them, and if you’re thinking Bondi or Patel will be spearheading an independent investigations; think again.
They’ll probably start an investigation into Goldberg, for leaking classified information, which the administration refuses to admit is classified. And within a month these clowns will be cleared, and handed the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Okay, maybe it will take six months for the medals, but they’re coming!
Furthermore, this will be a controlled investigation, tailored to make sure it goes nowhere, and all the players are cleared. This will be the FBI Kavanaugh Supreme Court investigation on Steroids:
“If the goal was to bypass National Security Council protocols, limit internal dissent, or shield conversations from scrutiny—then we’re no longer talking about sloppy decision-making. We’re talking about a shadow decision-making process: a backchannel that functioned not just as a workaround, but as the primary venue for planning military action.”
You asked, “Was this an accident or a feature”? In my opinion, it was by design. Trump stole Top Secret documents during his first term. He sent an armed mob to the Capitol; to overturn an election. He sent fake electors to Congress. He tried to extort a foreign leader and several Secretaries of State for votes, and to conjure up fake investigations against his adversaries. What was the penalty? ZILCH! NADA!
Instead, we had a Republican Party rallying behind this man, and they are supposed to be the National Security Party; strong on defense, who protect this nation.
Then we had a Supreme Court that slow rolled two legitimate investigations which could have landed Trump in jail! Yet, instead, they gave him immunity from being held to account, for his past actions, and future actions as the 47th president; for a second time!
“We’re talking about a shadow decision-making process: a backchannel that functioned not just as a workaround, but as the primary venue for planning military action.”
So yes Michael, the above statement is correct, with a few caveats! In my opinion, you’re viewing this the wrong way! You’re assuming the system itself hasn’t be fully corrupted; it most definitely has (in my opinion)! And what Trump and his minions understand, which apparently eludes the rest of us, is the fact that they have already won.
Sure, these people are incompetent, but they are the distraction. There are competent people behind the scenes. And as the complicit MSM continues to focus on the “low hanging fruit,” our country has lost all its checks and balances, and no longer has a rule of law. Our institutions and agencies have been decimated.
Has anyone considered that what’s happening at Social Security may not be just about paying seniors their benefits?
For example, we all need a social security number for work and ID’s; even getting a drivers license. And apparently, they are closing most of the SS offices around the country. Therefore, how easy would it be to make sure the system doesn’t work for minorities, people living in democratic areas around the country, or for any group that isn’t in their corner?
Republicans are changing voter laws and once they screw up the system beyond repair, there’s no one to fix the errors, or it will be outsourced to a contractor who is aligned with the Trump and MAGA. So Who’s going to investigate these people, and hold them to account. Exactly!
In fact, they will be able to steal elections, without rigging the election. They just legally exclude the right people, in the right counties, in specific swing states, and it’s done!
Bottom line: There is no cavalry coming to save us. There isn’t a White Knight coming to our rescue. And whether there is outrage by the majority of people going forward, we may not even have free and fair elections going forward, so it just might be a moot point.
Remember when Trump said at many of his rally’s, “vote in this election, because after this, you won’t have to ever vote again? Perhaps, it wasn’t just a cognitive impaired, delusional man talking smack; but perhaps a harbinger of things to come, because the outcome had already been decided! Its just the rest of us never got the MEMO!
Just some thoughts!…:)
I agree with all you write, and suggest it is further evidence that we are in the midst of a coup.
Robert, I appreciate Michael Sellers' very measured professional analysis of the immediate subject of this breach of intelligence.
Your pulling back and integrating it into the greater context of politics as it currently stands reinforces my confirmation biases.
If we assume we are in the midst of a coup de etat, and I am fairly certain we ARE... the current fiasco takes on an entirely different meaning.
Was it intentional? What purpose could there be to include the editor of The Atlantic? Is it to demonstrate the strength and depth of the coup?
Is it to test immunity to the rules as we previously understood them?
My cynicism and skeptical nature always makes me suspicious of anything related to Trump, from his boasts about elections to his denials about project 2025.
As MD Sellers has pointed out, Trump is at the very least, a useful fool.
That he has been played as such by the rich and powerful, foreign and domestic, only increases my alarm.
It is much much later than we think!
Agreed, and well said.
And don’t get me wrong. I appreciate Michael’s newsletter and like love it; however, like you, I’m skeptical of anything to do with Trump at this point, and I don’t think we’re being paranoid to have this set of beliefs. I’m done giving him, or his cabal of nefarious actors the benefit of the doubt: That ship has LONG sailed!
Bottom line: There is too much evidence that points to him being either a “useful idiot” or happy comrade to Putin! Either way, it’s like watching g a slow motion train wreck in real-time, and it’s more than disheartening, to say the least (being extremely diplomatic)!
That said, Michael is extremely measured and methodical, which is why he’s greatly appreciated, and his newsletter timely. Me; not so much!…:)
i think we have a good system here -- I stay in my lane and we have thoughtful commenters who can explore the 'where does this leave us?" questions. I have thoughts in that realm but if i start pushing a particular "theory of the case" prematurely it undermines the investigation - confirmation bias and all that. So i thinkk it's good for me to stay in my lane but there are adjacent lanes where others can take it a few steps further.
I’m a big fan of your newsletter, I hope I have not offended you in any way.
Not at all. LOL I’m hard to offend. I really appreciate your inputs. Very thoughtful and that add a lot to the community ….. pls keep on keeping on.
Bill is right, your newsletter is extremely measured, and your analysis is spot on. I believe in your profession you call it a slam dunk, whenever you have “a high degree of confidence; not a 100% absolute certainty in an outcome or event.
That said, in my mind, whenever something of the Yemen debacles occur, or they attack Social Security, or USAID; I automatically believe with a high degree of confidence, that it’s always much worse than we can ever imagine.
And as the wise man once said, you’re not paranoid, if they’re really out to get you!”…:)
Robert Jaffee “There are none so blind as those who do not see”. (Or don’t want to see). You must have been pulling your hair out like many watching all this coming down.
Everything we have seen up until now going right back to the first secret Trump/Putin meeting, where no notes were taken, shows the American people are the ones left out of the picture. You did an excellent job of putting it all together. Thank you!
I spent over 30 years in federal law enforcement, a lot of that in counterintelligence and other national security matters. For good reasons, namely to protect information, people, and operations there are certain ways to communicate. Signal isn’t one of them. I suspect this was done because those involved just couldn’t be bothered with doing it the right way. Using a secure method is too inconvenient and not having a record isn’t a bad thing they figured. The root cause is arrogance, incompetence, and their distain for pesky public record laws and government procedures. This incident is not unlike Hilary Clinton’s e-mail server, classified documents at Margo Largo, or Petreaus sharing classified with his biographer. It seems security is a nuisance for seniors in our government. Truth is when security breaks down weapon systems can be defeated, strategies can be countered, missions can fail, and sometimes people die. None of the people in the Signal chat are intelligence professionals, and you can tell. There was no adult in the room.
Michael, I’ve been enjoying your work for a good few weeks now and wanted to thank you for your immensely analytical, factual, and non-partisan analyses of these situations. I’ve saved this article for myself to read as a sanity check; I also peruse a little bit of social media and I’m fully confident that the bots will be clouding the narrative shortly.
I’m also aware that whether I like it or not, this will have an impact on my psyche and my interpretation of this event. Thus, I look forward to rereading this post in the future to remind me of reality, as many times as needed.
You’re doing much-needed work and making an impact where it counts. Thank you.
A well argued essay for a full investgation. Perhaps The Atlantic could run with it. ☮️
it was Waltz who set up the chat and added Goldberg. i'm curious too about who was intended but ended up being goldberg.
how did Goldberg come to be in Waltz's contacts? He typed 'jg' or 'j' and it autofilled Goldberg's address and he didn't check it. But who did he intend to include?
A good question that nobody else seems to be asking.
The plot thickens…
Mike, this is great, thank you. The most fascinating thing about this from my perspective has been the aggressive and transparently false reaction from everybody not named Goldberg, which collectively amounts to a confession. Hard not to recall that the entire Secret Service wiped its phones and lost its memory on January 7, 2021.
There is also the matter of the participants' blinkered views on supposed US allies.
https://www.persuasion.community/p/for-jd-vance-europe-really-is-the
Yup.!I started to get into that but decided maybe a follow up on that will be better. Some very interesting (but not surprising) insights…..
Vance et al. really seem to think they can pull the wool over the World's eyes, that they are the smartest kids in the room, and that Europe (and all the rest of us) are easily manipulated. Fortunately for us, Goldberg's inadvertent inclusion in the Signal chat unveiled the arrogance, malignancy, and incompetence of Trump's crew -- just as yesterday's congressional hearings revealed their mendacity.
If I was a member of that Signal group, I would be wondering who invited a prominent journalist to join and what their motive was.
Could it be that there was an “honest” member of that group chat who deliberately set out to sabotage and expose their illegal and dangerous backchannel? If so, kudos to whoever it was.
Good question. It would certainly need to be done by someone smarter than the yahoos on the chat. My money is on Waltz’s deputy or staffer. I can see him handing them his phone and saying “set up a chat, I’m busy” (or stupid). We all saw what happened to Vindman when he spoke up, whistle blowers have to be careful!
Read the West Point History Professor. He agrees.
Yep, I absolutely stole it from him. 🤭
Yes, our very own Deep Throat. Someone certainly on the inside. Too coincidental. Especially with Musk’s leaked news of top secret briefing a few days ago. I always like this part of the movie where the truth starts to appear.
If the Russians can access Signal, the USA and Five Eyes intelligence services can too. Is it technically possible for one of them to spring a leak?
Thank you! Your measured response is greatly appreciated. I enjoy having a source of info that doesn't scream.
The fact that the top brass uses Signal as a standard method for communication is at itself form of classified information. And according to Gabbard that it is preinstalled on all phones.
There are also too many people in the chat, with no apparent role.
I read the extended extract on CNN, and in consists of a first part on if they should strike now or later, but without details. Then Hegseth get a go ahead, and come back with a detailed timetable. Clearly he is carried away with the powers he has. That is very top secret at the time.
Waltz messages on the whereabouts of the target, and that is still classified. Is it a local, a drone or where does the exact information come from?
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/hegseth-waltz-gabbard-private-data-and-passwords-of-senior-u-s-security-officials-found-online-a-14221f90-e5c2-48e5-bc63-10b705521fb7
I am so far removed from clearance that the thought of applying for it is laughable. Anc yet I subscribe to darkweb and ID monitoring services.
These people have been high value targets for YEARS now. Inexecuseable!
Is it likely that an editor from a left-center major publication was added by accident? Or, is it much more likely that either an internal party with access to to his phone, or an external agency with ability to apply hacking techniques to his phone altered a benign contact to point to Goldberg’s number? The effect of this addition is a very predictable embarrassing exposure of the administration’s techniques and decision making. TL;DR. An accidental addition of Goldberg? Really?
They're claiming Witkoff didn't have phones with him in Moscow, only access to a classified protected server:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-envoy-steve-witkoff-signal-text-group-chat-russia-putin/
'Speaking Wednesday during a briefing at the White House, press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Witkoff did not have his personal device or his government-issued phone with him in Moscow. She said he was given access to a "classified protected server by the United States government, and he was very careful about his communications when he was in Russia."'
Unfortunately, in the view of the current White House, the US is a dictatorship already. It's just that people didn't realise it yet.