One idiot's analysis. If Iran was in a position to rapidly build a nuclear weapon were they to decide to pursue such an endeavor, and if their facilities were attacked in an attempt to destroy that capability, but the attack failed, then Iran would be expected to aggressively pursue the completion of a nuclear weapon as soon as possible. This would be the somewhat obvious risk of performing such an attack. So, the success of that attack, if undertaken, would need to be close to guaranteed. A can't fail mission if there ever was one. If that mission did in fact fail, and then the leader of the attacking nation lied about its success while demanding and sustaining a ceasefire, this would be the greatest possible gift that Iran could ever receive. What am I missing?
Absolutely! Iran received the greatest gift from Trump’s stupidity. By pretending that we succeeded in bombing the sites and refusing to see and acknowledge the truth that it was a failed attempt Iran now gets to keep their nukes intact hidden from view so that they can work on weaponizing them with the help of Russia.
Trump drops bombs. Trump claims absolute obliteration of target. Trump is caught in a lie. Trump doubles down and attacks rational truth tellers. Trump has clearly acted like a narcissistic fuck twit.
WE HAVE SEEN THIS ALL BEFORE. ONLY THIS TIME THE STAKES ARE HIGHER.
Honestly, if Iran really wanted a nuclear bomb, they could’ve bought one off the eastern block in the early 90s but guess what they never even tried to buy any of those eastern USSR countries old nuclear missiles but Kim Jong-un‘s daddy did how do you think he got nuclear weapons but yeah, no one says nothing about North Korea
By not admitting to his fuck up to save face Americans are now in danger as Iran now has the time and space to make nuclear bombs with Russia’s help. Iran is hell bent on destroying America and Israel. What do you think Iran is going to do with the bombs it now has a chance to make?
This is why ...many moons past...we were all..(.and that's every country with nuclear ability)...agreed to rid ourselves of this immense danger. Every possibility of a nuclear attack gets us closer to planetary suicide...We KNOW this...and yet....here we are .
In addition to the comments I made responding to Don below I am reposting a comment I made earlier one Charlie Sykes substack.
Trump is so locked into his lie about the effectiveness of the Iran strikes that he now says that we don't need an agreement with Iran to limit nuclear programs. After all the 'most effective military strike in history" completely obliterated Iran's capabilities! It appears he would rather that Iran retains the ability to build a bomb than admit he has been spouting BS. All of Trump's blather and the accolades from his toadies will not change the reality. The Iranian regime is still in power and apparently still has the means to go nuclear
Thanks for your explanation. I will always have faith and confidence in our brothers and sisters who maintain loyalty to the mission and not the madness! God Bless us all!
With the greatest respect and appreciation for our military, especially the bomber (not fighter, as Trump referred them) pilots and all who made this extraordinary mission possible, most of the general public can see for themselves that the bombing did not achieve Trump's goal of complete obliteration. Either (1) he was not given accurate pre-mission intelligence because underlings feared his rage and revenge if it was not what he wanted to hear, or (2) he has once again created his own reality, ignoring the facts. Either scenario is really scary stuff. In just about every other country, he is up against savvy leaders who can and will zero in on his Achilles heel and use it to attack him (us). A high price to pay for his insanity. Our time and energy needs to be spent on figuring out how to get rid of him rather than on trying to find a logic to explain his craziness. Congress, get busy!
Trump always speaks in hyperbole, so his initial statement was not unexpected nor reliable. I doubt he was lied to, he was given a low probability of success and hoped to hit a home run. Data and science has never been his strong suit. But agree he never admits he was premature or in error, and his lack of introspection is dangerous.
As usual, your deeper look is reasonable, thoughtfully stated, and based on fact. If I were a leader, and thankfully, I am not, I would want intelligent, analytical staff, like you, advising me. 👍
Thank you. It would be quite a challenge to survive in the current administration as someone intent on being fact-based, balanced, all of that. I'm sure there are a lot of IC professionals out there who are really in a tough spot now. In intelligence work, you genuinely feel a certain fidellity to the best approximation of the truth that you can put together. To start manipulating the truth to fit a politicians agenda would be very stressful. Glad I'm not faced with that dilemma.
Let's see.... I believe we are still conducting "BDA" in connection with the 2024 election. It is much more difficult than pure kinetics. You have sophisticated technology and human ops to deal with. And the same lies will be encountered. Good luck with that.
They definitely did. No release of radiation detected plus satellite shows trucks there some days before, likely moving it out -- plus intelligence reporting says they moved it.
In case you or your readers didn't see this -- June 21, NYT, very helpful graphic. Explains why likelihood of success of the big bomb was very much in doubt.
NYTimes: A Long Way Down: What It Takes to Hit Iran’s Deepest Nuclear Site
He's shallow, incurious and delusional. Even his lies and self-agrandizement are boring and easily disproved. But it was the greatest military action in history, and HE ordered it. God help those analysts.
This kind of reckoning of the Iranian bombing is so tiresome. Please see this CNN interview of Former Rep. Mike Turner for a more accurate characterization.
Turner's word parsing is an attempt to put lipstick on a pig.
His assertions are unsupported by facts. For example, he states that bunker busters always work. This parrots a White House talking point already out forth by Trump's spokesperson. There is no operational evidence to support this. In fact, this was the first time the GBU-57 was used in combat. If you do some research on earth penetrating weapons you will see that there are many factors that might have limited the bombs effectiveness, especially against will designed and hardened targets.
The military and the DIA have the primary responsibility and years of experience in performing battle/bomb damage assessments. If their preliminary estimate is, in fact, what is being reported I trust them much more than the statements of a man who lies pretty much every time he speaks. I base my statements on my 40 years of experience as an intelligence analyst and in the development and assessment of intelligence collection systems.
While I respect your IA experience, when coupled with this yet one more anonymous leak by yet another IA professional, I’m forever cautious w/what any of the 17 members of the IC have to offer about POTUS since 51 of its leaders peddled the Hunter laptop fable days before the 2020 election - a gutless effort to sway an election. And I, at least, still can't shake what all 17 of them told the country about the Russia hoax. Both of these claims were confidently brayed and both them were determined to be plainly, flatly, simply...false.
My latent caution aside, I think your comment wholly misses the gravamen of Turner's pushback. His point, made over and over despite CNN’s efforts to refute it, is that POTUS' statement did NOT claim to have destroyed Irans nuclear capability writ large. His statement expressly confined the assessment to these three facilities bombed. One needn’t an earpiece to grasp this central thrust of Turners pushback on this CNN set.
But more than this central point, as an IA professional, I wonder how you frame the further IC cautions afoot that even this ostensibly confidential assessment [you'll agree that they are confidential precisely b/c leaking this prelim info inevitably leads to the kind of conclusory, politicization we see now] is preliminary - mostly bc the best assessment is collected from eyes at the scene, which apparently we should expect soon. Moreover, the DIA is but 1/17 of the IC who’ll weigh in on this BDA. Still further, as an IA professional of your caliber, I have to wonder if you can disabuse us of this WH fable: BDA’s are famously imprecise, and more art that science. Pigs. Lipstick. Indeed.
And finally, today the Israelis published their own BDA to conclude much greater damage than originally assessed, not least bc they’re picking up radioactivity at the scene:
"The devastating US strike on Fordow destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility inoperable. We assess that the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran’s military nuclear program, has set back Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years. The achievement can continue indefinitely if Iran does not get access to nuclear material."
There's plenty of time yet for TDA sufferers to unearth legit handles on the Iranian nuclear facility bombing led by POTUS Trump. The DIA is not done yet, and 16/17 have yet to weigh in. Take a Pamprin. Save your lipstick for other canards.
There are so many parts of your response I could address.
But to be frank, someone once told me that you can't win a pissin' contest with a racehorse. So all the best to you and your beliefs - uninformed as they are.
One idiot's analysis. If Iran was in a position to rapidly build a nuclear weapon were they to decide to pursue such an endeavor, and if their facilities were attacked in an attempt to destroy that capability, but the attack failed, then Iran would be expected to aggressively pursue the completion of a nuclear weapon as soon as possible. This would be the somewhat obvious risk of performing such an attack. So, the success of that attack, if undertaken, would need to be close to guaranteed. A can't fail mission if there ever was one. If that mission did in fact fail, and then the leader of the attacking nation lied about its success while demanding and sustaining a ceasefire, this would be the greatest possible gift that Iran could ever receive. What am I missing?
Absolutely! Iran received the greatest gift from Trump’s stupidity. By pretending that we succeeded in bombing the sites and refusing to see and acknowledge the truth that it was a failed attempt Iran now gets to keep their nukes intact hidden from view so that they can work on weaponizing them with the help of Russia.
Trump knows he fucked up but, like all true narcissists will never admit to the truth to save face and have to admit that he fucked up.
Trump drops bombs. Trump claims absolute obliteration of target. Trump is caught in a lie. Trump doubles down and attacks rational truth tellers. Trump has clearly acted like a narcissistic fuck twit.
WE HAVE SEEN THIS ALL BEFORE. ONLY THIS TIME THE STAKES ARE HIGHER.
Honestly, if Iran really wanted a nuclear bomb, they could’ve bought one off the eastern block in the early 90s but guess what they never even tried to buy any of those eastern USSR countries old nuclear missiles but Kim Jong-un‘s daddy did how do you think he got nuclear weapons but yeah, no one says nothing about North Korea
By not admitting to his fuck up to save face Americans are now in danger as Iran now has the time and space to make nuclear bombs with Russia’s help. Iran is hell bent on destroying America and Israel. What do you think Iran is going to do with the bombs it now has a chance to make?
Iran must NEVER get nukes!
This is why ...many moons past...we were all..(.and that's every country with nuclear ability)...agreed to rid ourselves of this immense danger. Every possibility of a nuclear attack gets us closer to planetary suicide...We KNOW this...and yet....here we are .
In addition to the comments I made responding to Don below I am reposting a comment I made earlier one Charlie Sykes substack.
Trump is so locked into his lie about the effectiveness of the Iran strikes that he now says that we don't need an agreement with Iran to limit nuclear programs. After all the 'most effective military strike in history" completely obliterated Iran's capabilities! It appears he would rather that Iran retains the ability to build a bomb than admit he has been spouting BS. All of Trump's blather and the accolades from his toadies will not change the reality. The Iranian regime is still in power and apparently still has the means to go nuclear
Thanks for your explanation. I will always have faith and confidence in our brothers and sisters who maintain loyalty to the mission and not the madness! God Bless us all!
With the greatest respect and appreciation for our military, especially the bomber (not fighter, as Trump referred them) pilots and all who made this extraordinary mission possible, most of the general public can see for themselves that the bombing did not achieve Trump's goal of complete obliteration. Either (1) he was not given accurate pre-mission intelligence because underlings feared his rage and revenge if it was not what he wanted to hear, or (2) he has once again created his own reality, ignoring the facts. Either scenario is really scary stuff. In just about every other country, he is up against savvy leaders who can and will zero in on his Achilles heel and use it to attack him (us). A high price to pay for his insanity. Our time and energy needs to be spent on figuring out how to get rid of him rather than on trying to find a logic to explain his craziness. Congress, get busy!
Trump always speaks in hyperbole, so his initial statement was not unexpected nor reliable. I doubt he was lied to, he was given a low probability of success and hoped to hit a home run. Data and science has never been his strong suit. But agree he never admits he was premature or in error, and his lack of introspection is dangerous.
As usual, your deeper look is reasonable, thoughtfully stated, and based on fact. If I were a leader, and thankfully, I am not, I would want intelligent, analytical staff, like you, advising me. 👍
Thank you. It would be quite a challenge to survive in the current administration as someone intent on being fact-based, balanced, all of that. I'm sure there are a lot of IC professionals out there who are really in a tough spot now. In intelligence work, you genuinely feel a certain fidellity to the best approximation of the truth that you can put together. To start manipulating the truth to fit a politicians agenda would be very stressful. Glad I'm not faced with that dilemma.
Let's see.... I believe we are still conducting "BDA" in connection with the 2024 election. It is much more difficult than pure kinetics. You have sophisticated technology and human ops to deal with. And the same lies will be encountered. Good luck with that.
Also I think they probably moved the uranium before the bombing…wouldn’t have taken a genius to see it coming…
They definitely did. No release of radiation detected plus satellite shows trucks there some days before, likely moving it out -- plus intelligence reporting says they moved it.
MS - Have read all your analyses. Great work.
In case you or your readers didn't see this -- June 21, NYT, very helpful graphic. Explains why likelihood of success of the big bomb was very much in doubt.
NYTimes: A Long Way Down: What It Takes to Hit Iran’s Deepest Nuclear Site
A Long Way Down: What It Takes to Hit Iran’s Deepest Nuclear Site https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/20/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-fordo-bunker-buster-bomb.htm
I'd read that also... great work by Mr. Sellers to be sure...
Wonder where?
Come on, DIA, give us the truth about the dodo boys plans for taking over our democracy. Leak everything. To everyone, including Fox News.
Bravo. Great analysis.
Thanks, Michael. My thoughts also.
He's shallow, incurious and delusional. Even his lies and self-agrandizement are boring and easily disproved. But it was the greatest military action in history, and HE ordered it. God help those analysts.
Well he told them for days he was gonna do it.
“Experts? I don’t need no stinking experts!”
Kayfabe, directed by Putin. DJT can't admit he's been played...maybe he doesn't realize it yet?
This kind of reckoning of the Iranian bombing is so tiresome. Please see this CNN interview of Former Rep. Mike Turner for a more accurate characterization.
https://x.com/gunthereagleman/status/1937638854078660997?s=12&t=S92WasnYJWI3_nfy-XrE6w
Turner's word parsing is an attempt to put lipstick on a pig.
His assertions are unsupported by facts. For example, he states that bunker busters always work. This parrots a White House talking point already out forth by Trump's spokesperson. There is no operational evidence to support this. In fact, this was the first time the GBU-57 was used in combat. If you do some research on earth penetrating weapons you will see that there are many factors that might have limited the bombs effectiveness, especially against will designed and hardened targets.
The military and the DIA have the primary responsibility and years of experience in performing battle/bomb damage assessments. If their preliminary estimate is, in fact, what is being reported I trust them much more than the statements of a man who lies pretty much every time he speaks. I base my statements on my 40 years of experience as an intelligence analyst and in the development and assessment of intelligence collection systems.
While I respect your IA experience, when coupled with this yet one more anonymous leak by yet another IA professional, I’m forever cautious w/what any of the 17 members of the IC have to offer about POTUS since 51 of its leaders peddled the Hunter laptop fable days before the 2020 election - a gutless effort to sway an election. And I, at least, still can't shake what all 17 of them told the country about the Russia hoax. Both of these claims were confidently brayed and both them were determined to be plainly, flatly, simply...false.
My latent caution aside, I think your comment wholly misses the gravamen of Turner's pushback. His point, made over and over despite CNN’s efforts to refute it, is that POTUS' statement did NOT claim to have destroyed Irans nuclear capability writ large. His statement expressly confined the assessment to these three facilities bombed. One needn’t an earpiece to grasp this central thrust of Turners pushback on this CNN set.
But more than this central point, as an IA professional, I wonder how you frame the further IC cautions afoot that even this ostensibly confidential assessment [you'll agree that they are confidential precisely b/c leaking this prelim info inevitably leads to the kind of conclusory, politicization we see now] is preliminary - mostly bc the best assessment is collected from eyes at the scene, which apparently we should expect soon. Moreover, the DIA is but 1/17 of the IC who’ll weigh in on this BDA. Still further, as an IA professional of your caliber, I have to wonder if you can disabuse us of this WH fable: BDA’s are famously imprecise, and more art that science. Pigs. Lipstick. Indeed.
And finally, today the Israelis published their own BDA to conclude much greater damage than originally assessed, not least bc they’re picking up radioactivity at the scene:
"The devastating US strike on Fordow destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility inoperable. We assess that the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran’s military nuclear program, has set back Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years. The achievement can continue indefinitely if Iran does not get access to nuclear material."
There's plenty of time yet for TDA sufferers to unearth legit handles on the Iranian nuclear facility bombing led by POTUS Trump. The DIA is not done yet, and 16/17 have yet to weigh in. Take a Pamprin. Save your lipstick for other canards.
There are so many parts of your response I could address.
But to be frank, someone once told me that you can't win a pissin' contest with a racehorse. So all the best to you and your beliefs - uninformed as they are.