I am from Texas and a big issue involved the State of Texas refusing to fund local and county weather capability because of a recent property tax reduction. The big issue is what's called "The Last Mile," very similar to when shippers hand off products to USPS or local delivery services because "The Last Mile" is not what they are good at. It grieves me to say this but the State of Texas dropped the ball because all of these warnings were not transmitted by Texas authorities down to low lying areas (aka The Last Mile). I know it's popular to blame everything on whatever administration, regardless of party, happens to be currently in office but the long pole in the tent is that Texas failed at the county and local level and the vast majority of this tragedy falls at their doorstep.
It depends on the part of Texas you are in. Voters in Houston or San Antonio would toss these guys out at the next election. Kerrville is a very different place.
People should've been SMARTER...especially with the storm advisories...They were in place...NO ONE PAID ATTENTION.. Water is always dangerous during storms...how "bright"do you have to be regarding this fact???
A lot of this has to do with The Last Mile I wrote about earlier. Those camp advisors at the camp should have had a least one hand-crank NOAA emergency radio with them since the camp is so close to the Guadalupe River. Also, one thing about Texas is when the ground gets hard from no rain, even a 5 inch rainstorm can create a decent sized flood. This is not the first time the Guadalupe River came over the banks.
The 1987 Guadalupe River Flood. On July 16-17, 1987, more than 11 inches of rain fell near Hunt. The rain flooded the Guadalupe River through Ingram, Kerrville and eventually Comfort, about 15 miles southeast of Kerrville. At Comfort, the river rose 29 feet the morning of July 17 and flowed out about two-thirds of a mile from its normal bank at the flood’s peak, according to the National Weather Service.
The 1908 Trinity River Flood. Over three days in May 1908, about 15 inches of rain battered Dallas. The rain flooded the Trinity River to 52.6 feet deep and nearly 2 miles wide near downtown. The flood killed five people and forced thousands to evacuate, as parts of downtown and West Dallas were under water. It also washed away bridges and left the city without power, telephone, telegraph and rail services for days. The flood prompted city leaders to establish comprehensive flood control measures for Dallas. Construction of levees began in the 1930s, the second-largest public works project in the U.S. at the time. (Note that Dallas took corrective action).
The 1921 Thrall Flood. In September 1921, the remnants of a tropical storm dumped heavy rain in Central Texas. The city of Thrall in Williamson County saw an estimated 40 inches of rain within 24 hours, according to the National Weather Service. Over 19 inches of rain fell over Austin — the most the city has experienced — and 15 inches in San Antonio. The heavy rainfall swelled rivers and creeks across Central Texas and flooded the downtowns of Austin and San Antonio. The water was said to be 12 feet deep in some places in downtown San Antonio, according to NWS Austin/San Antonio. The floods claimed 215 lives — making it the deadliest flood in Texas history. The disaster spurred the construction of flood-control infrastructure in San Antonio, including the city’s River Walk.
2017 Hurricane Harvey. In August 2017, Hurricane Harvey became the first Category 4 hurricane to hit Texas since 1970. It landed in Rockport before lingering over Southeast Texas and dumping an unprecedented level of rain, including around Houston, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. At least 68 people died in Texas from the storm’s direct effects, and damages totaled well over $100 billion, making Harvey the costliest natural disaster in Texas until the 2021 winter storm that crippled the state’s power grid.
This is a tragedy plain and simple. Should the adults running the camp have done more, yes. That said, the death toll is now 104 according to United Press International in a press release 55 minutes ago so this is not just about the camp site. There was an RV park that was totally washed away within minutes.
Trump allowed Nazi Musk with DOGE to destroy NOAA By the end of February.
Trump, Nazi Musk,DOGE, Vought, Laura Grimm, Lutnick & the GOP Congress and the Texas State legislator all have a deadly connections to this Horrific tragedy.
As much as I HATE the felon and his regime...the stupidity of people ON ANY RIVER...any OCEAN FRONT al should know the dangers especially during storms. YES ...we NEED NOAA...damn straight!!! But this one they did not cause...
It's not stupid; it's ignorance. They are different. Ignorance is not knowing something. That includes the failure or inability to imagine something could happen. Stupidity is knowing some danger is possible, yet acting as if it's not.
LOL. Appreciate your response. I've had to write a few “Oops” posts myself.
When I wrote my original comment I lost my train of thought and forgot to conclude really smart people can be ignorant outside their areas of expertise.
I posted on Rick Wilson's STACK this morning and at that time we were blaming the NWS...not realising that THEY HAD DONE THEIR JOBS!! So...you have to look to people who are ON the rivers...in stormy areas...ANY PLACE and realise people just do NOT use their heads regarding COMMON SENSE.. These people ALL should've been more aware...especially with kids along a river that would logically rise during a storm..They KNEW the storm was there!!! In HINDSIGHT this is obvious...I just am so sorry about all those lost..especially children. Those living along these rivers were not usually affected by storms of this caliber, this dangerous.. Anytime there's water involved there are dangers...On the oceans, on cliffs above the ocean, on the rivers...even smaller streams... Thank you Michael...I'm grateful you shed this much light on this horrible situation.
Belgium had devastating floods in the valley of the Vesdre in 2021. When I look at time-lapse pictures of the wave of floodwaters, it reminds me of the Vesdre disaster. Because it was caused when water was released without warning from a reservoir dam.
But maybe Belgium lacked faith: it appears that, in Texas, praying stops floodwaters.
Your sarcasm strikes a sad note about people everywhere...just trying to survive...Well people learn??? You'd think after so many storms with huge amounts of rain...that people would be smarter..but..NO...they still drive into floods...they still build on Ocean fronts...there's always a risk...
The government's official initial response to the flood was to hammer home the need for prayer. I pray, so no sarcasm was intended, but this was clearly a message not to the victims of flood but to political supporters of a nationalist Christian vein. Sorry if it came over as offensive, but there you are.
Summer camp is meant to be a memorable life experience…not this. Those poor campers and counselors didn’t have a chance. They were sleeping in a very high risk low terrain area and responsible adults failed to protect them. Now comes the assignment of blame. There’s much of it about. And too many funerals. Blessed are those who hunger and thirst for justice. But the families of those lost can never be satisfied.
Was there any cloud seeding operations on this storm prior to the event ? Be interesting to find out. West Texas has been in a severe Drought for some time now.
The Big Thomson Flood of 1976 was reviewed in my college Hydrology class in Fort Collins just miles from the event and it was more like “a 1000 year” flood event with flows estimated around 31,000 cfs. In fact we have so little data that it may have been a much higher level event. Some years the Colorado River does not peak at that volume.
Thanks for the thorough report. I will only add this: the DOGE cuts to FEMA sure as hell DIDN'T help those poor innocent children, woman and men who were living joyously at summer camp until an extreme weather event struck and took their lives
Keeping people safe in a time of increasingly severe weather events is not inexpensive. Do we want to invest in safety and security of all our children OR pay for gold plated toilets for a handful of felons and also pay thru the nose for their army of “brownshirts” to protect only them and their gold??? It really isn’t rocket science. We can do better. We just have to make better choices!!
I am from Texas and a big issue involved the State of Texas refusing to fund local and county weather capability because of a recent property tax reduction. The big issue is what's called "The Last Mile," very similar to when shippers hand off products to USPS or local delivery services because "The Last Mile" is not what they are good at. It grieves me to say this but the State of Texas dropped the ball because all of these warnings were not transmitted by Texas authorities down to low lying areas (aka The Last Mile). I know it's popular to blame everything on whatever administration, regardless of party, happens to be currently in office but the long pole in the tent is that Texas failed at the county and local level and the vast majority of this tragedy falls at their doorstep.
And yet Texas voters will still vote for the same local lawmakers who dropped the ball on this.
It depends on the part of Texas you are in. Voters in Houston or San Antonio would toss these guys out at the next election. Kerrville is a very different place.
People should've been SMARTER...especially with the storm advisories...They were in place...NO ONE PAID ATTENTION.. Water is always dangerous during storms...how "bright"do you have to be regarding this fact???
A lot of this has to do with The Last Mile I wrote about earlier. Those camp advisors at the camp should have had a least one hand-crank NOAA emergency radio with them since the camp is so close to the Guadalupe River. Also, one thing about Texas is when the ground gets hard from no rain, even a 5 inch rainstorm can create a decent sized flood. This is not the first time the Guadalupe River came over the banks.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 1987 Guadalupe River Flood. On July 16-17, 1987, more than 11 inches of rain fell near Hunt. The rain flooded the Guadalupe River through Ingram, Kerrville and eventually Comfort, about 15 miles southeast of Kerrville. At Comfort, the river rose 29 feet the morning of July 17 and flowed out about two-thirds of a mile from its normal bank at the flood’s peak, according to the National Weather Service.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 1908 Trinity River Flood. Over three days in May 1908, about 15 inches of rain battered Dallas. The rain flooded the Trinity River to 52.6 feet deep and nearly 2 miles wide near downtown. The flood killed five people and forced thousands to evacuate, as parts of downtown and West Dallas were under water. It also washed away bridges and left the city without power, telephone, telegraph and rail services for days. The flood prompted city leaders to establish comprehensive flood control measures for Dallas. Construction of levees began in the 1930s, the second-largest public works project in the U.S. at the time. (Note that Dallas took corrective action).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 1921 Thrall Flood. In September 1921, the remnants of a tropical storm dumped heavy rain in Central Texas. The city of Thrall in Williamson County saw an estimated 40 inches of rain within 24 hours, according to the National Weather Service. Over 19 inches of rain fell over Austin — the most the city has experienced — and 15 inches in San Antonio. The heavy rainfall swelled rivers and creeks across Central Texas and flooded the downtowns of Austin and San Antonio. The water was said to be 12 feet deep in some places in downtown San Antonio, according to NWS Austin/San Antonio. The floods claimed 215 lives — making it the deadliest flood in Texas history. The disaster spurred the construction of flood-control infrastructure in San Antonio, including the city’s River Walk.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2017 Hurricane Harvey. In August 2017, Hurricane Harvey became the first Category 4 hurricane to hit Texas since 1970. It landed in Rockport before lingering over Southeast Texas and dumping an unprecedented level of rain, including around Houston, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. At least 68 people died in Texas from the storm’s direct effects, and damages totaled well over $100 billion, making Harvey the costliest natural disaster in Texas until the 2021 winter storm that crippled the state’s power grid.
This is a tragedy plain and simple. Should the adults running the camp have done more, yes. That said, the death toll is now 104 according to United Press International in a press release 55 minutes ago so this is not just about the camp site. There was an RV park that was totally washed away within minutes.
Thanks for fair objective journalism produced so quickly after this tragedy.
My guess is that Musk will be the fall guy and Trump will likely claim to know nothing of the work DOGE was doing.
Excellent. Your analysis should read in Congress
Here what a weather guy said months ago
https://substack.com/@raidadave/note/c-133021763?r=z5mva
Trump allowed Nazi Musk with DOGE to destroy NOAA By the end of February.
Trump, Nazi Musk,DOGE, Vought, Laura Grimm, Lutnick & the GOP Congress and the Texas State legislator all have a deadly connections to this Horrific tragedy.
As much as I HATE the felon and his regime...the stupidity of people ON ANY RIVER...any OCEAN FRONT al should know the dangers especially during storms. YES ...we NEED NOAA...damn straight!!! But this one they did not cause...
They call it a "flood plain" for a reason. The camp is right on the flood plain.
It's not stupid; it's ignorance. They are different. Ignorance is not knowing something. That includes the failure or inability to imagine something could happen. Stupidity is knowing some danger is possible, yet acting as if it's not.
You are correct...mea culpa...My ignorance...I misused this word...Stupid of me...
LOL. Appreciate your response. I've had to write a few “Oops” posts myself.
When I wrote my original comment I lost my train of thought and forgot to conclude really smart people can be ignorant outside their areas of expertise.
Don’t let Trumps “once in 100 year event “ distract you from the truth. This is absolute BS!
More to come, and worse, gratis carbon fuels.
I posted on Rick Wilson's STACK this morning and at that time we were blaming the NWS...not realising that THEY HAD DONE THEIR JOBS!! So...you have to look to people who are ON the rivers...in stormy areas...ANY PLACE and realise people just do NOT use their heads regarding COMMON SENSE.. These people ALL should've been more aware...especially with kids along a river that would logically rise during a storm..They KNEW the storm was there!!! In HINDSIGHT this is obvious...I just am so sorry about all those lost..especially children. Those living along these rivers were not usually affected by storms of this caliber, this dangerous.. Anytime there's water involved there are dangers...On the oceans, on cliffs above the ocean, on the rivers...even smaller streams... Thank you Michael...I'm grateful you shed this much light on this horrible situation.
Belgium had devastating floods in the valley of the Vesdre in 2021. When I look at time-lapse pictures of the wave of floodwaters, it reminds me of the Vesdre disaster. Because it was caused when water was released without warning from a reservoir dam.
But maybe Belgium lacked faith: it appears that, in Texas, praying stops floodwaters.
https://www.brusselstimes.com/931316/how-belgiums-fatal-floods-changed-its-approach-to-future-disasters
Your sarcasm strikes a sad note about people everywhere...just trying to survive...Well people learn??? You'd think after so many storms with huge amounts of rain...that people would be smarter..but..NO...they still drive into floods...they still build on Ocean fronts...there's always a risk...
The government's official initial response to the flood was to hammer home the need for prayer. I pray, so no sarcasm was intended, but this was clearly a message not to the victims of flood but to political supporters of a nationalist Christian vein. Sorry if it came over as offensive, but there you are.
Summer camp is meant to be a memorable life experience…not this. Those poor campers and counselors didn’t have a chance. They were sleeping in a very high risk low terrain area and responsible adults failed to protect them. Now comes the assignment of blame. There’s much of it about. And too many funerals. Blessed are those who hunger and thirst for justice. But the families of those lost can never be satisfied.
I still remember the freezing weather that rendered their power grid useless. Thanks for this analysis.
Elon and Doge cut the analysis and warning personnel
Was there any cloud seeding operations on this storm prior to the event ? Be interesting to find out. West Texas has been in a severe Drought for some time now.
The Big Thomson Flood of 1976 was reviewed in my college Hydrology class in Fort Collins just miles from the event and it was more like “a 1000 year” flood event with flows estimated around 31,000 cfs. In fact we have so little data that it may have been a much higher level event. Some years the Colorado River does not peak at that volume.
Thanks for the thorough report. I will only add this: the DOGE cuts to FEMA sure as hell DIDN'T help those poor innocent children, woman and men who were living joyously at summer camp until an extreme weather event struck and took their lives
Keeping people safe in a time of increasingly severe weather events is not inexpensive. Do we want to invest in safety and security of all our children OR pay for gold plated toilets for a handful of felons and also pay thru the nose for their army of “brownshirts” to protect only them and their gold??? It really isn’t rocket science. We can do better. We just have to make better choices!!
In the past, a disaster like this would result in someone being fired.