Michael, I am reading your very justified doubt-filled question. It is 4am in Budapest now, and I have to leave home, but will answer your question later today what Hungarians felt in 2011. I have the exact answer, I remember those days exactly. And all the following doubts, fears and actual events year by year up to now. Wait for my answers, including the sequence of events, and the recipe how to survive sliding down on Orbán’s killer slope. 15 years have passed, but Orbán’s system is more a wreck now, than a confident example to other sinister autocrats. He is still teaching them, and hopes to survive. The fight is on here, with good hopes for the better this time. (It is about time, finally)
I promised to answer for sunny yesterday, having been busy, I will deliver rainy today.
In the meantime, read Paul Krugman's two-part conversation with Kim Schappele regarding Orban here in Substack. It is an excellent read, as always, from Paul. Of course, I am nobody to the Nobel laureate, but somebody as a 100% Hungarian.
I'm sorry for not getting back to you sooner. The main reason was a joyful mixture of traveling and seeing my children and five grandchildren living abroad.
I promised you I would give a detailed account of how Viktor Orbán first grabbed power over Hungary and then meticulously demolished democracy step by step. I found five full books written on his story, one of which I read about twenty years ago.
Orbán became known to the Hungarian Public in 1989, the last year of the Cold War, when most Eastern European countries changed from the Soviet model and started the bumpy road to a multi-party democracy.
The Warsaw Express launched in the spring with Walensa as the elected president of Poland. Next, in Prague, Havel was victorious. In Budapest, Miklós Németh took charge; the communist party was dissolved and replaced by a social-democratic party. In November, the Berlin Wall fell, and at Christmas, Ceaușescu was executed by his Securitate people in Bucharest.
In Hungary, the credibility of the changing regime depended on how it related to the Soviet crushing of the 1956 revolution and the execution of its leader, Prime Minister Imre Nagy. Miklós Németh decided to officially re-bury the martyrs on June 16, 1989. Viktor Orbán, the leader of the new FIDESZ party (Alliance of the Young Democrats), in his fiery speech demanded free elections and the withdrawal of the Soviet troops still stationed in Hungary since 1956.
This speech suddenly made Orbán well-known. Several hundred thousand people have been claimed to have been present at Budapest's Heroes' Square, and millions followed in front of TV screens.
He introduced himself as a fearless young leader with radical liberal views.
I was one of Prime Minister Németh's advisors at the time. Sensitive negotiations about the troop withdrawal were already in progress between him and Gorbachev. In risky diplomacy, Orbán's statements were like having an elephant in the china shop. Fortunately, Gorbachev succeeded.
FIDESZ was a radical liberal party targeting youth. Orbán was elected vice president of the European Liberal International. Its domestic adversaries were the left (former communist) and conservative parties. FIDESZ mocked religious (Christian Democratic—oriented) parties.
Orbán was first known in Hungary in 1989, when he was the leader of the newly established FIDESZ (Alliance of Free Democrats) party.
The first free elections approached. FIDESZ played the role of the "enfant terrible" among the parties. The vote count was 8.95%, which was third best. This is not bad for a beginner, but it is far from powerful.
A center-right coalition - a people's front - started to govern, led by the Democratic Forum. FIDESZ was comfortable in opposition, allied with the senior liberal party, the Free Democrats. No responsibility had to be shared.
Four more years have passed, as the Democratic Forum multiplied by splitting into three, according to ideological lines. The Socialists have strengthened and joined with the Free Democrats to win the next elections. FIDESZ was in danger of not making the 5% minimum to get in, but they survived.
This was the point when Orban became relentless.:
1. He saw the downward trend in the traditional rightwing parties. (Next term, he led a winning coalition with them, to undermine and finally swallow them.)
2. Recognized the potential in the countryside and the retired,
religious voters. (As a Calvinist prime minister, instead of mocking, he went to audiences with more than one Pope with his family, and gave double financial support to religious schools than the state-run institutions.
3. He recognized the potential of the Hungarians beyond the borders, so they had to be given voting rights in the Hungarian parliamentary elections. (He called for a referendum on this, won it, and—also thanks to the stupid policies of the Socialists—these voters became his believers.
4. Orbán decided to keep his base aligned and fanatic by providing them with tangible financial favours beyond the legal frameworks.
5. He wanted to establish a "national bourgeoisie" from his faithful supporters/cronies, so Public Procurements must have gone to them. To be on the safe side, he made his own family go on top of the circle of beneficiaries and was never afraid of nepotism.
6. Legislation must stabilize the system in the long run.
7. Write a new constitution as soon as possible, deleting term limits and favouring the winner to compensate them for the fractional votes.
8. Law Enforcement and state prosecutors have to serve the system and prevent criminal acts from being legally carried out. The lack of term limits comes in handy here.
9. Grab the majority of the press, radio, and TV channels to occupy the
propaganda funneling nationwide.
10. Internationally, align with like-minded regimes, complete the ideological turn to the far right, and show the peacock dance to display your lack of integrity and responsibility. Orbán's Hungary has to be friends with autocrats from east to west and has no reliable partners with the keepers of stability worldwide.
How long does it last?
After 15 years of continuous rule, and stupifying, people feel it is enough. You can stream only government-aligned TV but not close the internet.
One year before the next elections, a serious challenger, Peter Magyar, is already significantly leading the polls. The change can come.
“If you’ve read history, if you understand how fragile democratic norms can be, if you’ve seen how strongmen consolidate power step by step, then the current trajectory looks frighteningly familiar. It really, truly looks like we’re headed down the road that will lead to autocracy.”
Great information Michael, and wonderful newsletter as always.
Agreed! We’re seeing normalcy bias daily. I worked on Wall Street most of my professional career, so I speak to others from the Industry daily. And you’re right, everyone has been thinking that authoritarianism is a bridge too far; “it’s america, it can’t happen here!” I hear it all the time, or it’s as you’ve stated; I suffer from TDS, which I originally thought stood for The Daily Show!
That said, I sold most of my marketable securities in early February, when the government purges were taken place, and I was the epitome of the Cassandra Problem. And it wasn’t me they wouldn’t take seriously; it was the belief that we couldn’t become something different as a society; we’re the greatest democracy to ever exist. Yada, yada, yada!
Additionally, the thought process I heard over and over again was that “so many of the wealthiest and smartest supported Trump, how can these people be wrong?” “If what you’re saying is true, then why is Trump so popular?” Same song; different versions! Rinse, lather, repeat!
That said, as for Hungary, and whether we’d get there, and how long will it take? I thought about this for a while. When I have discussions with friends and some former military and intelligence people, I hear different opinions. Some say two years, others say never. There is no consensus, although it appears some people are coming around to my opinion.
However, when Orban took power, he didn’t have complete control of parliament, or the courts. It took time to consolidate power, and bring the media to heel. Not so much for Trump!
The MSM pledged fealty a year before the election. The Heritage Fiundation had a manifesto, which is almost a carbon copy of Orban’s playbook for years before the election. They recruited thousands of people to replace our current federal workforce years in advance. I hear estimates of up to 15-20 thousand vetted individuals for key roles in government.
Furthermore, the Plutocrats rallied around him, and Wall Street downplayed his ludicrous stances on tariffs and other harebrained economic schemes.
Moreover, by the time Trump was inaugurated, he controlled the legislature and the courts (they slow rolled several pivotal court cases before the election), and carved out an unconstitutional immunity clause in the Constitution for one man who wasn’t even in power at the time. This movement was coordinated, and well planned.
And when you consider how quickly he consolidated power and neutered the MSM, I’d say we’re closer to Hungary, or an authoritarian kakistocracy than we think. And when our citizens finally realize what’s happening, and fight back, he’ll invoke Martial Law and game over.
Personally, as much as I appreciate these debates and newsletters, we have to consider the fact that these morally bankrupt charlatans; including Heritage, The Federalist Society, and Trump’s criminal enterprise, have already succeeded in reshaping America for decades to come. It’s just that most of Americas haven’t gotten the memo, and maybe they never will, or don’t care!
This was great. Thank you. I’ve been in that predicament too. Raise the alarm before it’s too late or reassure myself and those around me that all is well and will get back to normal soon. I want to raise the alarm before it’s too late. Forewarned is forearmed and I don’t see how we can ever be found guilty of taking whatever steps available to us before we are too feeble to hold the barriers against this evil.
Spot on. This is what all those of us who can see the totality of what's going on with the details and the knowledge of history face. It's a balancing act, waiting for enough people to catch up so we'll be believed and supported in action. And at which point can you say, this is it? This is the moment we have to act or it will be too late
In South Korea it was the attempt to bring in martial law that made people act. It might be the same in the US. For sure that is coming. Perhaps education on what that means might be a good preparation to help people see that that is a moment they cannot let pass unchallenged.
Great insights as always Michael. I just had this conversation yesterday with a friend who definitely falls on the "normalcy" side. He cannot really fathom America caving because of a single presidential administration.
My question is always, "What if this president really means to take the country down? Is it really worth the negative impact of the risk to not stop it from happening?"
And looking back at history, I can safely say that I disagreed with almost everything that George W Bush did, but I never once thought his goal was to undermine the Constitution and turn America into a totalitarian state.
The onslaught on basic democratic values by this administration is purposeful and definitely cause for alarm. If not put in check, they won't be stoppable. This time he has a guidebook in project 2025 and has surrounded himself with a lot of like minded zealots. No Bill Barrs in this group.
Let the data set you free, Michael. A lot of the boxes on your list have already been checked.
Bush Jr. played footsies with authoritarianism but, ultimately, Dad’s guys came in and set him straight. It was under Jr that I saw how vulnerable we were. He toyed with violating a Supreme Court ruling. And, as a reminder, his administration talked about deporting, non-citizen “terrorists” without due process on one hand and on the other hand, they also talked about revoking a persons citizenship who was born in this country. I immediately saw where they were heading. My (ex) husband was did not have an issue with each of these separately. When I put it together for him, his reaction flipped immediately.
You are so correct and maybe I gave him a little more slack because of 911. It's good that he listened to his dads guys on these 2. I just wish he'd listened to them about going into Baghdad.
Definitely. It was later in his 2nd term when things were going very badly that Dad's guys really kicked in. I think it was the the Neocons who had too much influence at the time.
"I don’t want to be lulled to sleep by normalcy bias. ... But I also don’t want to live in a state of ambient panic—flinching at every headline, catastrophizing every move, wearing out the alarm bell so badly that no one hears it when it really counts. So I’m going to try—really try—to evaluate this moment with discipline."
It does look grim. There is some research on evaluating this moment, and unfortunately the statistics are also grim. In a paper on "How democracies prevail: democratic resilience as a two-stage process" by Boese et at. we find this statement in the abstract. Note the last sentence.
"Drawing on the Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT) dataset, we find that democracies have had a high level of resilience to onset of autocratization since 1900. Nevertheless, democratic resilience has become substantially weaker since the end of the Cold War. Fifty-nine episodes of sustained and substantial declines in democratic practices have occurred since 1993, leading to the unprecedented breakdown of 36 democratic regimes. Ominously, we find that once autocratization begins, only one in five democracies manage to avert breakdown."
The process of autocratization has clearly begun in the US. Statistically, it now has only a 20% chance of averting breakdown and remaining a democracy.
The paper is quite readable at first, and then gets into slightly technical data. It discusses why autocratization occurs and how it is sometimes halted. I stopped reading half way through and skipped to Conclusions. There I found "Third, we show that once democracies “select in” to autocratization, breakdown resilience is weaker. The global fatality rate is 77% – only 19 of the 84 completed episodes managed to change the course and avert breakdown." Thus rather than a 20% chance, the US has a 23% chance of averting breakdown. Small consolation.
Elsewhere the abstract says "We also analyze which factors are associated with each stage of democratic resilience. The results suggest that democracies are more resilient when strong judicial constraints on the executive are present and democratic institutions were strong in the past."
There is some realistic hope here. We are seeing strong pushback in the courts against illegal actions by the Trump administration. Furthermore, our "democratic institutions were strong in the past." Thus, the US may be more resilient that normal. Perhaps we can beat that 23% chance of escaping the dystopian future of authoritarianism.
It seems to me that we Americans are great at self-deception and wishful thinking. How else to explain HSCA perjurer John L. Hart's sarcastically deeming KGB true-defector Anatoliy Golitsyn's warning of a 1959-on, deception-based Master Plan the "Monster Plot"? (Unless, of course, Hart, Colby, McCoy, Solie, Kisevalter, Gerber, and Bearden, et al. ad nauseam, were KGB "moles")?
Excellent essay! I have just this very day been thinking the same way....and friends are saying I am a negative person while I know from my own reality that it not true. I had not thought of Cassandra, but that is perfect for these times. Perhaps being educated, a bit smarter and older, wiser, it makes this harder to handle. Then again, I would not want to pretend that nothing is happening...but, what do you do about it? It's the speed of it all. Unless you go back to his first term and realize the last four years were not a pause, but a practice run and readiness to move with speed in this moment. So, thank you, Michael, for your honesty and insight.
April 19…the next multi-city protest. Let’s make it bigger than April 6. Bring your Black and Hispanic friends. Your LGBTQ friends, and all against a fascist takeover!
I've read a great deal of WWII history. During Trump's first term, I read a bio of Hitler. Even then, the parallels were chilling. Now they're even more so. Still waiting for the Reichstag to burn, though.
This doesn't seem like Cassandra spirals or like MAGA love. Wary, certainly, and on tenterhooks, but staying alert. Nothing about 2025 so far is normal. Stay the course with us, and don't go crazy-making yourself.
Anonymous. believe we crossed the line from normalcy when the Republican party started following an unelected Former President. Maybe in 2022 if not before. No checks and balances now. There is a danger that a U. S. Citizen could be "disappeared" in a San Salvador "gulag." The courts are being challenged. The military is being called to do government work. Can we even have a fair election now? Do we have a strong Democratic candidate? I think alarm bells are ringing.
I am also an Australian living in Australia. I heard the drumbeats of Fascism during Trump's 1st term, was relieved when he was voted out in 2020, but am now very concerned about this 2nd administration of his. I am also powerless to help.
Dear Michael, it is brilliant analysis, thank you for your guidance on how to stay alert. I remember the days in pre-Putin’s Russia, how we have trusted president Yeltsin assessment in 1999 when he had asked Russians to support his candidate, Vladimir Putin
. We trusted Boris and loved him because he was against the old communist regime, he stood up to Coup of 1991, we were active democracy supporters and Boris was our leader. Then he retired and his last words to Putin were «берегите Россию» (“look after Russia”)
We knew Putin was KGB, and we didn’t trust the organisation, but Boris said Vladimir is his choice. I made a fatal mistake and voted for Putin, on Russia presidential elections in 2000, another candidate Primakov was old school communist, and also had KGB connection. After Putin won, he started his program eliminating all obstacles on his way to personal power. His first deed shown personal cruelty was Kursk submarine case, he famously played tennis while sailors were slowly suffocating without oxygen. He stomped down on independent media, NTV has become his pocket TV channel. Then all changes rolled on, crashing what new democracy in Russia only started to feel, along with the new war in Chechnya, using the war to fly patriotic feelings among Russian citizens, he started appointing governors rather than have them elected. He returned the old soviet anthem. After his first few months at power the dictatorship was already written on the wall. I left the country as it changed dramatically into something sinister…
Michael, I am reading your very justified doubt-filled question. It is 4am in Budapest now, and I have to leave home, but will answer your question later today what Hungarians felt in 2011. I have the exact answer, I remember those days exactly. And all the following doubts, fears and actual events year by year up to now. Wait for my answers, including the sequence of events, and the recipe how to survive sliding down on Orbán’s killer slope. 15 years have passed, but Orbán’s system is more a wreck now, than a confident example to other sinister autocrats. He is still teaching them, and hopes to survive. The fight is on here, with good hopes for the better this time. (It is about time, finally)
I definitely look forward to your detailed thoughts in this.
Michael,
I promised to answer for sunny yesterday, having been busy, I will deliver rainy today.
In the meantime, read Paul Krugman's two-part conversation with Kim Schappele regarding Orban here in Substack. It is an excellent read, as always, from Paul. Of course, I am nobody to the Nobel laureate, but somebody as a 100% Hungarian.
Michael,
I'm sorry for not getting back to you sooner. The main reason was a joyful mixture of traveling and seeing my children and five grandchildren living abroad.
I promised you I would give a detailed account of how Viktor Orbán first grabbed power over Hungary and then meticulously demolished democracy step by step. I found five full books written on his story, one of which I read about twenty years ago.
Orbán became known to the Hungarian Public in 1989, the last year of the Cold War, when most Eastern European countries changed from the Soviet model and started the bumpy road to a multi-party democracy.
The Warsaw Express launched in the spring with Walensa as the elected president of Poland. Next, in Prague, Havel was victorious. In Budapest, Miklós Németh took charge; the communist party was dissolved and replaced by a social-democratic party. In November, the Berlin Wall fell, and at Christmas, Ceaușescu was executed by his Securitate people in Bucharest.
In Hungary, the credibility of the changing regime depended on how it related to the Soviet crushing of the 1956 revolution and the execution of its leader, Prime Minister Imre Nagy. Miklós Németh decided to officially re-bury the martyrs on June 16, 1989. Viktor Orbán, the leader of the new FIDESZ party (Alliance of the Young Democrats), in his fiery speech demanded free elections and the withdrawal of the Soviet troops still stationed in Hungary since 1956.
This speech suddenly made Orbán well-known. Several hundred thousand people have been claimed to have been present at Budapest's Heroes' Square, and millions followed in front of TV screens.
He introduced himself as a fearless young leader with radical liberal views.
I was one of Prime Minister Németh's advisors at the time. Sensitive negotiations about the troop withdrawal were already in progress between him and Gorbachev. In risky diplomacy, Orbán's statements were like having an elephant in the china shop. Fortunately, Gorbachev succeeded.
FIDESZ was a radical liberal party targeting youth. Orbán was elected vice president of the European Liberal International. Its domestic adversaries were the left (former communist) and conservative parties. FIDESZ mocked religious (Christian Democratic—oriented) parties.
Orbán was first known in Hungary in 1989, when he was the leader of the newly established FIDESZ (Alliance of Free Democrats) party.
The first free elections approached. FIDESZ played the role of the "enfant terrible" among the parties. The vote count was 8.95%, which was third best. This is not bad for a beginner, but it is far from powerful.
A center-right coalition - a people's front - started to govern, led by the Democratic Forum. FIDESZ was comfortable in opposition, allied with the senior liberal party, the Free Democrats. No responsibility had to be shared.
Four more years have passed, as the Democratic Forum multiplied by splitting into three, according to ideological lines. The Socialists have strengthened and joined with the Free Democrats to win the next elections. FIDESZ was in danger of not making the 5% minimum to get in, but they survived.
This was the point when Orban became relentless.:
1. He saw the downward trend in the traditional rightwing parties. (Next term, he led a winning coalition with them, to undermine and finally swallow them.)
2. Recognized the potential in the countryside and the retired,
religious voters. (As a Calvinist prime minister, instead of mocking, he went to audiences with more than one Pope with his family, and gave double financial support to religious schools than the state-run institutions.
3. He recognized the potential of the Hungarians beyond the borders, so they had to be given voting rights in the Hungarian parliamentary elections. (He called for a referendum on this, won it, and—also thanks to the stupid policies of the Socialists—these voters became his believers.
4. Orbán decided to keep his base aligned and fanatic by providing them with tangible financial favours beyond the legal frameworks.
5. He wanted to establish a "national bourgeoisie" from his faithful supporters/cronies, so Public Procurements must have gone to them. To be on the safe side, he made his own family go on top of the circle of beneficiaries and was never afraid of nepotism.
6. Legislation must stabilize the system in the long run.
7. Write a new constitution as soon as possible, deleting term limits and favouring the winner to compensate them for the fractional votes.
8. Law Enforcement and state prosecutors have to serve the system and prevent criminal acts from being legally carried out. The lack of term limits comes in handy here.
9. Grab the majority of the press, radio, and TV channels to occupy the
propaganda funneling nationwide.
10. Internationally, align with like-minded regimes, complete the ideological turn to the far right, and show the peacock dance to display your lack of integrity and responsibility. Orbán's Hungary has to be friends with autocrats from east to west and has no reliable partners with the keepers of stability worldwide.
How long does it last?
After 15 years of continuous rule, and stupifying, people feel it is enough. You can stream only government-aligned TV but not close the internet.
One year before the next elections, a serious challenger, Peter Magyar, is already significantly leading the polls. The change can come.
“If you’ve read history, if you understand how fragile democratic norms can be, if you’ve seen how strongmen consolidate power step by step, then the current trajectory looks frighteningly familiar. It really, truly looks like we’re headed down the road that will lead to autocracy.”
Great information Michael, and wonderful newsletter as always.
Agreed! We’re seeing normalcy bias daily. I worked on Wall Street most of my professional career, so I speak to others from the Industry daily. And you’re right, everyone has been thinking that authoritarianism is a bridge too far; “it’s america, it can’t happen here!” I hear it all the time, or it’s as you’ve stated; I suffer from TDS, which I originally thought stood for The Daily Show!
That said, I sold most of my marketable securities in early February, when the government purges were taken place, and I was the epitome of the Cassandra Problem. And it wasn’t me they wouldn’t take seriously; it was the belief that we couldn’t become something different as a society; we’re the greatest democracy to ever exist. Yada, yada, yada!
Additionally, the thought process I heard over and over again was that “so many of the wealthiest and smartest supported Trump, how can these people be wrong?” “If what you’re saying is true, then why is Trump so popular?” Same song; different versions! Rinse, lather, repeat!
That said, as for Hungary, and whether we’d get there, and how long will it take? I thought about this for a while. When I have discussions with friends and some former military and intelligence people, I hear different opinions. Some say two years, others say never. There is no consensus, although it appears some people are coming around to my opinion.
However, when Orban took power, he didn’t have complete control of parliament, or the courts. It took time to consolidate power, and bring the media to heel. Not so much for Trump!
The MSM pledged fealty a year before the election. The Heritage Fiundation had a manifesto, which is almost a carbon copy of Orban’s playbook for years before the election. They recruited thousands of people to replace our current federal workforce years in advance. I hear estimates of up to 15-20 thousand vetted individuals for key roles in government.
Furthermore, the Plutocrats rallied around him, and Wall Street downplayed his ludicrous stances on tariffs and other harebrained economic schemes.
Moreover, by the time Trump was inaugurated, he controlled the legislature and the courts (they slow rolled several pivotal court cases before the election), and carved out an unconstitutional immunity clause in the Constitution for one man who wasn’t even in power at the time. This movement was coordinated, and well planned.
And when you consider how quickly he consolidated power and neutered the MSM, I’d say we’re closer to Hungary, or an authoritarian kakistocracy than we think. And when our citizens finally realize what’s happening, and fight back, he’ll invoke Martial Law and game over.
Personally, as much as I appreciate these debates and newsletters, we have to consider the fact that these morally bankrupt charlatans; including Heritage, The Federalist Society, and Trump’s criminal enterprise, have already succeeded in reshaping America for decades to come. It’s just that most of Americas haven’t gotten the memo, and maybe they never will, or don’t care!
Just some thoughts!…:)
Great thoughts. Please keep them coming. These are important discussions and I’m better at stating the problem than coming up with a solution.
Well-reasoned and articulated. Thank you.
This was great. Thank you. I’ve been in that predicament too. Raise the alarm before it’s too late or reassure myself and those around me that all is well and will get back to normal soon. I want to raise the alarm before it’s too late. Forewarned is forearmed and I don’t see how we can ever be found guilty of taking whatever steps available to us before we are too feeble to hold the barriers against this evil.
Spot on. This is what all those of us who can see the totality of what's going on with the details and the knowledge of history face. It's a balancing act, waiting for enough people to catch up so we'll be believed and supported in action. And at which point can you say, this is it? This is the moment we have to act or it will be too late
In South Korea it was the attempt to bring in martial law that made people act. It might be the same in the US. For sure that is coming. Perhaps education on what that means might be a good preparation to help people see that that is a moment they cannot let pass unchallenged.
Great insights as always Michael. I just had this conversation yesterday with a friend who definitely falls on the "normalcy" side. He cannot really fathom America caving because of a single presidential administration.
My question is always, "What if this president really means to take the country down? Is it really worth the negative impact of the risk to not stop it from happening?"
And looking back at history, I can safely say that I disagreed with almost everything that George W Bush did, but I never once thought his goal was to undermine the Constitution and turn America into a totalitarian state.
The onslaught on basic democratic values by this administration is purposeful and definitely cause for alarm. If not put in check, they won't be stoppable. This time he has a guidebook in project 2025 and has surrounded himself with a lot of like minded zealots. No Bill Barrs in this group.
Let the data set you free, Michael. A lot of the boxes on your list have already been checked.
Bush Jr. played footsies with authoritarianism but, ultimately, Dad’s guys came in and set him straight. It was under Jr that I saw how vulnerable we were. He toyed with violating a Supreme Court ruling. And, as a reminder, his administration talked about deporting, non-citizen “terrorists” without due process on one hand and on the other hand, they also talked about revoking a persons citizenship who was born in this country. I immediately saw where they were heading. My (ex) husband was did not have an issue with each of these separately. When I put it together for him, his reaction flipped immediately.
You are so correct and maybe I gave him a little more slack because of 911. It's good that he listened to his dads guys on these 2. I just wish he'd listened to them about going into Baghdad.
Definitely. It was later in his 2nd term when things were going very badly that Dad's guys really kicked in. I think it was the the Neocons who had too much influence at the time.
"I don’t want to be lulled to sleep by normalcy bias. ... But I also don’t want to live in a state of ambient panic—flinching at every headline, catastrophizing every move, wearing out the alarm bell so badly that no one hears it when it really counts. So I’m going to try—really try—to evaluate this moment with discipline."
It does look grim. There is some research on evaluating this moment, and unfortunately the statistics are also grim. In a paper on "How democracies prevail: democratic resilience as a two-stage process" by Boese et at. we find this statement in the abstract. Note the last sentence.
https://api.taylorfrancis.com/content/chapters/oa-edit/download?identifierName=doi&identifierValue=10.4324/9781003363507-2&type=chapterpdf
"Drawing on the Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT) dataset, we find that democracies have had a high level of resilience to onset of autocratization since 1900. Nevertheless, democratic resilience has become substantially weaker since the end of the Cold War. Fifty-nine episodes of sustained and substantial declines in democratic practices have occurred since 1993, leading to the unprecedented breakdown of 36 democratic regimes. Ominously, we find that once autocratization begins, only one in five democracies manage to avert breakdown."
The process of autocratization has clearly begun in the US. Statistically, it now has only a 20% chance of averting breakdown and remaining a democracy.
The paper is quite readable at first, and then gets into slightly technical data. It discusses why autocratization occurs and how it is sometimes halted. I stopped reading half way through and skipped to Conclusions. There I found "Third, we show that once democracies “select in” to autocratization, breakdown resilience is weaker. The global fatality rate is 77% – only 19 of the 84 completed episodes managed to change the course and avert breakdown." Thus rather than a 20% chance, the US has a 23% chance of averting breakdown. Small consolation.
Elsewhere the abstract says "We also analyze which factors are associated with each stage of democratic resilience. The results suggest that democracies are more resilient when strong judicial constraints on the executive are present and democratic institutions were strong in the past."
There is some realistic hope here. We are seeing strong pushback in the courts against illegal actions by the Trump administration. Furthermore, our "democratic institutions were strong in the past." Thus, the US may be more resilient that normal. Perhaps we can beat that 23% chance of escaping the dystopian future of authoritarianism.
It seems to me that we Americans are great at self-deception and wishful thinking. How else to explain HSCA perjurer John L. Hart's sarcastically deeming KGB true-defector Anatoliy Golitsyn's warning of a 1959-on, deception-based Master Plan the "Monster Plot"? (Unless, of course, Hart, Colby, McCoy, Solie, Kisevalter, Gerber, and Bearden, et al. ad nauseam, were KGB "moles")?
Excellent essay! I have just this very day been thinking the same way....and friends are saying I am a negative person while I know from my own reality that it not true. I had not thought of Cassandra, but that is perfect for these times. Perhaps being educated, a bit smarter and older, wiser, it makes this harder to handle. Then again, I would not want to pretend that nothing is happening...but, what do you do about it? It's the speed of it all. Unless you go back to his first term and realize the last four years were not a pause, but a practice run and readiness to move with speed in this moment. So, thank you, Michael, for your honesty and insight.
April 19…the next multi-city protest. Let’s make it bigger than April 6. Bring your Black and Hispanic friends. Your LGBTQ friends, and all against a fascist takeover!
I’m giving serious thought to moving abroad. Even if Trump exits the scene somehow, repairing the damage will take time.
“The optimists died in the gas chambers, and the pessimists have pools in Beverly Hills.” — Billy Wilder, 1945
I've read a great deal of WWII history. During Trump's first term, I read a bio of Hitler. Even then, the parallels were chilling. Now they're even more so. Still waiting for the Reichstag to burn, though.
This doesn't seem like Cassandra spirals or like MAGA love. Wary, certainly, and on tenterhooks, but staying alert. Nothing about 2025 so far is normal. Stay the course with us, and don't go crazy-making yourself.
Thank you. Insightful, measured and timely. As always.
Anonymous. believe we crossed the line from normalcy when the Republican party started following an unelected Former President. Maybe in 2022 if not before. No checks and balances now. There is a danger that a U. S. Citizen could be "disappeared" in a San Salvador "gulag." The courts are being challenged. The military is being called to do government work. Can we even have a fair election now? Do we have a strong Democratic candidate? I think alarm bells are ringing.
Wise words indeed !
Isn’t it mind boggling though that you’re having to say all this ?
My prevailing thought is fear however, but as an Australian, living in Australia, I am powerless to help !!
No, your thoughts, prayers & emotional support count for a lot. Never doubt the value of that.
I am also an Australian living in Australia. I heard the drumbeats of Fascism during Trump's 1st term, was relieved when he was voted out in 2020, but am now very concerned about this 2nd administration of his. I am also powerless to help.
You are helping just letting us know that you are watching and support our concerns. Things can look different from outside.
Dear Michael, it is brilliant analysis, thank you for your guidance on how to stay alert. I remember the days in pre-Putin’s Russia, how we have trusted president Yeltsin assessment in 1999 when he had asked Russians to support his candidate, Vladimir Putin
. We trusted Boris and loved him because he was against the old communist regime, he stood up to Coup of 1991, we were active democracy supporters and Boris was our leader. Then he retired and his last words to Putin were «берегите Россию» (“look after Russia”)
We knew Putin was KGB, and we didn’t trust the organisation, but Boris said Vladimir is his choice. I made a fatal mistake and voted for Putin, on Russia presidential elections in 2000, another candidate Primakov was old school communist, and also had KGB connection. After Putin won, he started his program eliminating all obstacles on his way to personal power. His first deed shown personal cruelty was Kursk submarine case, he famously played tennis while sailors were slowly suffocating without oxygen. He stomped down on independent media, NTV has become his pocket TV channel. Then all changes rolled on, crashing what new democracy in Russia only started to feel, along with the new war in Chechnya, using the war to fly patriotic feelings among Russian citizens, he started appointing governors rather than have them elected. He returned the old soviet anthem. After his first few months at power the dictatorship was already written on the wall. I left the country as it changed dramatically into something sinister…
Thank you! This helped me and I passed it along to friends