This is why I am a devoted paid subscriber‼️ Michael, you really deserve some recognition for your hard work. Thanks 🙏🏼 so much for delivering on your promise for clear and honest analysis of the global issues of our time, I find it incredibly helpful because clarity and precision are NOT found anywhere else on the news grid today‼️👏🏼😅🙏🏼🙏🏼
You've somehow missed out on an important point in this otherwise excellent assesment: Russian economy. It's quickly deteriorating, and things have been much worsened by the prohibitive central bank rate, high inflation, and unsustainable budget deficit. Not a decisive factor by itself, it has multiple system-wide implications.
I think this is a fair point, and probably the main thing I would emphasize more strongly in a revised version.
We did address parts of this — fuel disruption, the rising cost of recruitment, budget pressure, and the broader question of whether Russia can sustain the war machine. But I agree that the Russian economy should be treated not just as background context, but as one of the central stress points.
The important caveat is that Russia is not economically collapsing. It still has energy revenue, state control, wartime production priorities, and the ability to push enormous costs onto society. But the strain is visible even in Russian official sources. The Central Bank’s latest materials show why: inflation pressure remains high, expectations remain elevated, labor shortages persist, wage growth is outrunning productivity, and the key rate remains punishingly high at 14.25%. That is not a healthy peacetime economy. It is an economy being forced to finance a long war under inflationary pressure.
The budget picture is also deteriorating. Russian Finance Ministry data, reported by Russian outlets, showed the federal budget deficit for January–May 2026 already reaching about 6 trillion rubles, or 2.6% of GDP — well above the planned full-year deficit target. That matters because military spending, recruitment payments, subsidies, fuel disruption, and high interest rates all interact with one another.
So I would sharpen the assessment this way: Russia’s problem is not only battlefield sustainment, but whole-of-system sustainment. The economy is not yet a war-ending vulnerability by itself. But it amplifies every other pressure point: manpower, fuel, logistics, inflation, industrial capacity, and domestic political management.
That is a good correction. Russia can still fight, but it is fighting under increasingly expensive and increasingly distorted economic conditions.
I recommend following daily progress of the war on the YouTube channels of Denys Davydov and ATP Geopolitics. Both aggregate the news from Ukrainian and Russian sources. While each is obviously pro-Ukraine, they report both the good and bad news.
Two areas that Michael did not mention was (1) Ukraine's advantage provided by Starlink which Musk has geofenced in Russia and satellite intelligence provided by the US. (2) Ukraine's current strategy to cut off Crimea from Russia and turn it from a Russian advantage from where they threatened the southern Donbas to a liability they can no longer logistically support.
Each of us as we are able can support Ukraine by donating to United24. Even if you can't donate, the website is fascinating. Here's the link; https://u24.gov.ua/
July 1 Russia closed train crossings to Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. A major mobilization is expected after the mid-September elections in Russia. Seems they don’t want able bodied men to flee before the mobilization
Zelenskyy is hard pressed to convince agent Krashnov of abandoning his handler Putin..
The proof of Z's leadership is in Crimea.
The Russians who moved into Crimea with the expectation of glorious living on the sea, are now fleeing north, back to mother Russia in caravans.
Ukraine drove the Soviet Navy out of Crimean ports, with seaborne Drones, and now they are attacking supply ships in the Sea of Azov.
Crimea is fed by a land bridge through Donbas, and Ukraine has all but closed the south bound lane into Crimea, using drones to attack trucks carrying gas and supplies, the attacks are so effective that Russia abandoned rationing for closing petrol stations..
But Ukraine has left the north bound lane of the land bridge open, allowing the Russians to remigrate back to their beloved oppriessive motherland., all this while expanding their reach to attack and shut down refineries and ammo depots.
Z is playing it smart, not attacking civilian targets, to do so would mobilize the Russian public against Ukraine.
Putin is desperate, faltering, he has attacked energy, weapons production sites, but is ineffective as Ukraine has decentralized everything. There ae no handful of drone production facilities, there are hundreds, they are being constructed in basements, garages, back rooms of houses.
By the way centralized production is Americ'as weakness, it limits quantities and raises costs.
Putin is desperate, he has all the appearances of a weak and failing man, which makes him more dangerous, especially for Russian insiders.
The more desperate the MFWIC, the more he relies on security and secret services, purges and imprisonment or third story accidents..
This applies to Trump as well. His domestic base, besides the MAGAt idiots, is the Broligarchy, Wall Street, the billionaires. There is one thing that he pays close attention to and that is the stock market, including especially the petroleum futures, Every time he declared a cease fire, or that he won, the futures market went down, then a few days later he would resume bombing and the market would go up, followed by a declaration of peace and the market wold plunge, wash, rinse, repeat., and Batton, a 20 year olld multi milionaire, crept closer to being a billionaire.
The petroleum strategic reserves are about 300 million barrels, the national defense levels, necessary to fuel our fighters, bombers, transport aircraft, tanks, armored vehicles, trucks, humvees is 287 Million parrels. We consume 20 million barrels per day, and produce 13 milllion barrels per day, 20 million if you include all petroleum products, however the oil companies export about 4 million or more bbls per day, to take advantage of the international spot price of over $120 a bbl.
Exxon, Chevron, the IEA has said, about 2 or 3 weeks ago, that we have 4 weeks until we hit tank bottom, that is about July 17. Gas will surge to $8 a gallon, and there will be lines at the gas station.
Gas prices have been held down,because Trump has implored (threatened) the oil companies to keep them down.
Europe gas prices average 1.72 Euros per litre, or $7.43 per gallon, there are 3.785 litres in a gallon.
Canadians living near the US border drive over the border to fill up
I keep my tank topped off, every time I drive to town, I fill up. Gas whee I live averages about $6 a gallon
Excellent assessment Michael, I was also going to comment on the economic impacts (as a reader already has) which seem to me to
be more significant than you have characterized in your article. Your response makes sense and is most likely based on your assessment of the intelligence that you have at your disposal and not an emotional response. Perhaps Russia will be able to overcome this before the public sentiment gets too strong but I am hoping that Putin takes a walk from a 5th floor window. I also think you are downplaying the significance of cutting of Crimea, but in reality, leaving the northbound lanes open would not stop Russia from using those lanes in the opposite direction to bring fuel into Crimea.
As much as I want Ukraine to win, it pains me to hear the unvarnished truth. I believe we also (as much as one can, being so removed from the conflict) need to share in the struggle of Ukraine. They deserve to have a qualified spokesman such as yourself in the U.S. capable of telling the truth.
I also believe that Ukraine is demonstrating to the whole world that our old ways of thinking about power and security are largely obsolete.
I am reminded of the incident during the Civil War in which the first two ironclad warships went at each other. In that very instant all wooded warships were rendered obsolete...
thank you, sobering, but a more balanced discussion than some; I look forward to reading your posts, and hope that you will also soon look at what the significance is of the apparent shift by China, and
with best wishes to you, your family, and your dogs...
Bottom line: This is an absolutely magnificent assessment. As the old saying goes, "an army travels on its stomach." Sound logistics (beans, bullets, fuel, etc) enables Ukraine to stay in the fight. It is in NATO's best interest to support Ukraine as much as possible without compromising its own war stocks and readiness.
It is important to point out that until recently Trump has worked hard to help Russia regardless of his public statements. Now he sees the winds shifting and he is giving lip service to Ukraine’s emergence as a formidable power while still supporting Russia in the background.
Mr. Sellers sounds like a Russian sympathizer who acknowledged Ukrainian gains but counters with Russian 'maybe they cans'. Really? Absorb refinery devastation? The lifting of sanctions D gifted his beastie is being methodically neutralized.
Russian sympathizer — nope. But understand how that impresssion can take root when I try to do a neutral rather than partisan assessment. I’m on team Ukraine all the way. Just not being a cheerleader in this kind of post.
Last I heard Ukraine are reduced to aiming wooden prop drones with kerosene payloads at remote commercial interests to make smoke columns.
Meanwhile Russia just hit Kiev with 50 unopposed heavy ballistics inside an hour that destroyed core R&D and manufacturing sites, including 10 Zircons that took out the Soviet era nuclear bunkers and cracked the ceilings in the Kiev metro.
Yes I submit....you are brutally candid & analytical. I just don't think Russia is capable of adapting as your scenarios suggest/offer possibility. I'm saving article/analysis to read again thoroughly as it DOES offer expansive takes that I'll try to digest. I'm just a rookie 😅
My fear is that russia uses nukes before it admits defeat and retreats. On that note if Ukraine can get a truck load of drones parked beside an air base they could orchestrate any sort of attack. I'm afraid escalation is more likely than a peaceful retreat.
Good analysis, but seems writtwn in January ams opposed to June because it failed to acknowledge difficulty of maintaining an army given the oil shortages ans resulting expense.
This is why I am a devoted paid subscriber‼️ Michael, you really deserve some recognition for your hard work. Thanks 🙏🏼 so much for delivering on your promise for clear and honest analysis of the global issues of our time, I find it incredibly helpful because clarity and precision are NOT found anywhere else on the news grid today‼️👏🏼😅🙏🏼🙏🏼
You've somehow missed out on an important point in this otherwise excellent assesment: Russian economy. It's quickly deteriorating, and things have been much worsened by the prohibitive central bank rate, high inflation, and unsustainable budget deficit. Not a decisive factor by itself, it has multiple system-wide implications.
I think this is a fair point, and probably the main thing I would emphasize more strongly in a revised version.
We did address parts of this — fuel disruption, the rising cost of recruitment, budget pressure, and the broader question of whether Russia can sustain the war machine. But I agree that the Russian economy should be treated not just as background context, but as one of the central stress points.
The important caveat is that Russia is not economically collapsing. It still has energy revenue, state control, wartime production priorities, and the ability to push enormous costs onto society. But the strain is visible even in Russian official sources. The Central Bank’s latest materials show why: inflation pressure remains high, expectations remain elevated, labor shortages persist, wage growth is outrunning productivity, and the key rate remains punishingly high at 14.25%. That is not a healthy peacetime economy. It is an economy being forced to finance a long war under inflationary pressure.
The budget picture is also deteriorating. Russian Finance Ministry data, reported by Russian outlets, showed the federal budget deficit for January–May 2026 already reaching about 6 trillion rubles, or 2.6% of GDP — well above the planned full-year deficit target. That matters because military spending, recruitment payments, subsidies, fuel disruption, and high interest rates all interact with one another.
So I would sharpen the assessment this way: Russia’s problem is not only battlefield sustainment, but whole-of-system sustainment. The economy is not yet a war-ending vulnerability by itself. But it amplifies every other pressure point: manpower, fuel, logistics, inflation, industrial capacity, and domestic political management.
That is a good correction. Russia can still fight, but it is fighting under increasingly expensive and increasingly distorted economic conditions.
Tell us more.......
Look it up, there's a lot of up-to-date analysis available, though mostly in Russian.
I recommend following daily progress of the war on the YouTube channels of Denys Davydov and ATP Geopolitics. Both aggregate the news from Ukrainian and Russian sources. While each is obviously pro-Ukraine, they report both the good and bad news.
Two areas that Michael did not mention was (1) Ukraine's advantage provided by Starlink which Musk has geofenced in Russia and satellite intelligence provided by the US. (2) Ukraine's current strategy to cut off Crimea from Russia and turn it from a Russian advantage from where they threatened the southern Donbas to a liability they can no longer logistically support.
Each of us as we are able can support Ukraine by donating to United24. Even if you can't donate, the website is fascinating. Here's the link; https://u24.gov.ua/
July 1 Russia closed train crossings to Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. A major mobilization is expected after the mid-September elections in Russia. Seems they don’t want able bodied men to flee before the mobilization
Zelenskyy is hard pressed to convince agent Krashnov of abandoning his handler Putin..
The proof of Z's leadership is in Crimea.
The Russians who moved into Crimea with the expectation of glorious living on the sea, are now fleeing north, back to mother Russia in caravans.
Ukraine drove the Soviet Navy out of Crimean ports, with seaborne Drones, and now they are attacking supply ships in the Sea of Azov.
Crimea is fed by a land bridge through Donbas, and Ukraine has all but closed the south bound lane into Crimea, using drones to attack trucks carrying gas and supplies, the attacks are so effective that Russia abandoned rationing for closing petrol stations..
But Ukraine has left the north bound lane of the land bridge open, allowing the Russians to remigrate back to their beloved oppriessive motherland., all this while expanding their reach to attack and shut down refineries and ammo depots.
Z is playing it smart, not attacking civilian targets, to do so would mobilize the Russian public against Ukraine.
Putin is desperate, faltering, he has attacked energy, weapons production sites, but is ineffective as Ukraine has decentralized everything. There ae no handful of drone production facilities, there are hundreds, they are being constructed in basements, garages, back rooms of houses.
By the way centralized production is Americ'as weakness, it limits quantities and raises costs.
Putin is desperate, he has all the appearances of a weak and failing man, which makes him more dangerous, especially for Russian insiders.
The more desperate the MFWIC, the more he relies on security and secret services, purges and imprisonment or third story accidents..
This applies to Trump as well. His domestic base, besides the MAGAt idiots, is the Broligarchy, Wall Street, the billionaires. There is one thing that he pays close attention to and that is the stock market, including especially the petroleum futures, Every time he declared a cease fire, or that he won, the futures market went down, then a few days later he would resume bombing and the market would go up, followed by a declaration of peace and the market wold plunge, wash, rinse, repeat., and Batton, a 20 year olld multi milionaire, crept closer to being a billionaire.
The petroleum strategic reserves are about 300 million barrels, the national defense levels, necessary to fuel our fighters, bombers, transport aircraft, tanks, armored vehicles, trucks, humvees is 287 Million parrels. We consume 20 million barrels per day, and produce 13 milllion barrels per day, 20 million if you include all petroleum products, however the oil companies export about 4 million or more bbls per day, to take advantage of the international spot price of over $120 a bbl.
Exxon, Chevron, the IEA has said, about 2 or 3 weeks ago, that we have 4 weeks until we hit tank bottom, that is about July 17. Gas will surge to $8 a gallon, and there will be lines at the gas station.
Gas prices have been held down,because Trump has implored (threatened) the oil companies to keep them down.
Europe gas prices average 1.72 Euros per litre, or $7.43 per gallon, there are 3.785 litres in a gallon.
Canadians living near the US border drive over the border to fill up
I keep my tank topped off, every time I drive to town, I fill up. Gas whee I live averages about $6 a gallon
Excellent assessment Michael, I was also going to comment on the economic impacts (as a reader already has) which seem to me to
be more significant than you have characterized in your article. Your response makes sense and is most likely based on your assessment of the intelligence that you have at your disposal and not an emotional response. Perhaps Russia will be able to overcome this before the public sentiment gets too strong but I am hoping that Putin takes a walk from a 5th floor window. I also think you are downplaying the significance of cutting of Crimea, but in reality, leaving the northbound lanes open would not stop Russia from using those lanes in the opposite direction to bring fuel into Crimea.
As much as I want Ukraine to win, it pains me to hear the unvarnished truth. I believe we also (as much as one can, being so removed from the conflict) need to share in the struggle of Ukraine. They deserve to have a qualified spokesman such as yourself in the U.S. capable of telling the truth.
I also believe that Ukraine is demonstrating to the whole world that our old ways of thinking about power and security are largely obsolete.
I am reminded of the incident during the Civil War in which the first two ironclad warships went at each other. In that very instant all wooded warships were rendered obsolete...
thank you, sobering, but a more balanced discussion than some; I look forward to reading your posts, and hope that you will also soon look at what the significance is of the apparent shift by China, and
with best wishes to you, your family, and your dogs...
Bottom line: This is an absolutely magnificent assessment. As the old saying goes, "an army travels on its stomach." Sound logistics (beans, bullets, fuel, etc) enables Ukraine to stay in the fight. It is in NATO's best interest to support Ukraine as much as possible without compromising its own war stocks and readiness.
It is important to point out that until recently Trump has worked hard to help Russia regardless of his public statements. Now he sees the winds shifting and he is giving lip service to Ukraine’s emergence as a formidable power while still supporting Russia in the background.
Yes Robert....he will NEVER abandon/betray his bestie. They are joined at the hip for a handful of reasons.
An excellent summation of the situation Michael. Thankyou
Thank you for your insight. Much appreciated.
I don't trust D to follow thru but even IF he allowed Patriot interceptors it might take a year for Ukraine to get them..
if D doesnt change his 'mind'
My understanding is a minimum of two years to set put Patriot missile production.
Mr. Sellers sounds like a Russian sympathizer who acknowledged Ukrainian gains but counters with Russian 'maybe they cans'. Really? Absorb refinery devastation? The lifting of sanctions D gifted his beastie is being methodically neutralized.
Russian sympathizer — nope. But understand how that impresssion can take root when I try to do a neutral rather than partisan assessment. I’m on team Ukraine all the way. Just not being a cheerleader in this kind of post.
In your defense I think context is important. The whole world swings wildly from one sensational view to the next. This is what we are used to.
In your career you were critically trained as a CIA Operative to develop unbiased intelligence.
I say, follow the intelligence and see where it leads.
Last I heard Ukraine are reduced to aiming wooden prop drones with kerosene payloads at remote commercial interests to make smoke columns.
Meanwhile Russia just hit Kiev with 50 unopposed heavy ballistics inside an hour that destroyed core R&D and manufacturing sites, including 10 Zircons that took out the Soviet era nuclear bunkers and cracked the ceilings in the Kiev metro.
No wonder the narcofuhrer left town.
Yes I submit....you are brutally candid & analytical. I just don't think Russia is capable of adapting as your scenarios suggest/offer possibility. I'm saving article/analysis to read again thoroughly as it DOES offer expansive takes that I'll try to digest. I'm just a rookie 😅
My fear is that russia uses nukes before it admits defeat and retreats. On that note if Ukraine can get a truck load of drones parked beside an air base they could orchestrate any sort of attack. I'm afraid escalation is more likely than a peaceful retreat.
Good analysis, but seems writtwn in January ams opposed to June because it failed to acknowledge difficulty of maintaining an army given the oil shortages ans resulting expense.