Really appreciate your analysis… especially when you are dissecting intelligence. Russia analysis is clearly a forte! I wonder what a shift like that would mean for 1) US relations and 2) Ukraine . Obviously a guess, but seems they could both be dramatically different.
A number of people asked -- and some pointed out that Patrushev is a hardliner, so how would that play. I'll repost one of the comments I made below--but this issomething that problably deserves a full post at some point.
.....Patrushev is unquestionably at least as hostile to Ukraine and the West as Putin. But “more hawkish” does not necessarily translate into an open-ended escalation of the same war. Patrushev is better understood as a security-state strategist: deeply ideological, but also transactional and focused on preserving Russian power.
A Patrushev-dominated leadership might intensify the war initially, especially if it blamed Shoigu and others for incompetence. But it might also conclude that Putin had become too personally invested to end a strategically and economically damaging conflict. In that case, the objective could be to escalate briefly, improve Russia’s leverage, then seek a deal with Washington that freezes Russian gains and sidelines Ukraine and Europe.
So yes, it could be very bad news—especially if it produced more competent military management. But the likely outcome is not necessarily “more war forever.” It could be a harder, more disciplined effort to secure Russia’s objectives through a combination of battlefield pressure and negotiation.
Re arranging the deck chairs doesn't mean the ship will stop sinking. Or that the new crew is going to be more competent than the old one. This reads like an effort to contain the blame and continue as before
Unfortunately, Patrushev is a hardliner on Ukraine—perhaps THE hardliner: Patrushev was the primary security counsel architect of the 2022 invasion. Patrushev is the one who assessed it would be a “3-day special military operation” and he, (along with the Kovalachuk brothers Yuri & Mikhail) are the hawkish triumvirate credited with convincing Putin to launch the full-scale invasion in the first place. They have a near-mystical conviction in Russia’s God-given destiny to control the “Eurasian” continent by re-establishing the “Ruskyy Mir” Russian/Soviet Empire & sphere of influence — and so see conquering & re-absorbing Ukraine as an existential necessity for Russia.
Since the Russian invasion floundered and stretched on longer than planned, Patrushev has been widely seen as a leading war hawk pushing for Putin to legally declare a full “war” (rather than the “limited Special Military Operation” it currently is declared as under Russian federal law,) which would give the Russian president power to call up a full “general mobilization” of the entire Russian population to surge troops into Ukraine.
It’s not entirely clear if that remains Patrushev’s goal—but Ukraine’s intelligence directorate reportedly has confirmed that Russian MOD is planning a full military mobilization following the Russian federal elections this September (2 months from now.)
It’s also not clear if Patrushev would be willing to broker a peace deal due to the fuel crises Ukraine has newly imposed on them…but he certainly cannot be trusted any more than Putin can — It was Patrushev who openly mocked US and western leaders for “ludicrous fear-mongering” about an imminent invasion of Ukraine just hours before Russia Invaded: “They are talking about a threat, that Russia is threatening Ukraine. Complete madness... We do not want war, we do not need it at all.”
Wow, thank you for that assessment, J Allen Kaiser. That is not great news at all. On the other hand, if Putin were out, I wonder how much deference the US admin would give Patrushev and a new regime, as it appears Trump bends the knee for Putin and does that with few others.
Attn. Michael; I hope that you follow up on Suzaane G's question regarding what this MAY mean for Russia's war on Ukraine. Does your source hint at what the usurpers lean toward and MAY do regarding the war?
And again thanks for the deep dive into this. Will be interesting.........
Changing the leadership will not stop Ukraine from strangling the Russian economy. What we are seeing is a rapid acceleration of pain being inflicted and if an additional 20% of refining capability is achieved within the next few weeks, it may be impossible for any new Russian leadership group to go on the offensive. Time is not Russia’s friend. Will September be too far away?
Wow, Michael, this is a most interesting post and your analysis is like reading a spy novel! You really have a talent for creating succinct and easily understood narrative. THANK YOU, so much!!
I know I’ve said this before many times, but I am so appreciative of your analytical style, your restraint, and your clarity of language. I am so tired of presumptions and preemptive reactions. A whisper isn’t a done deal, and I’m tired of reading slop that treats it like it is.
Thank you for this assessment, Michael. Fascinating reading! Question, if I may (and it's pure speculation at this point - if Putin is "retired" by the apparatus, what becomes of tRump/Krasnov?
What occurred to me as I read this, and before when I read Jay Kuo's take on conditions on the ground in the Russian war on Ukraine, is that this info may help explain why Krasnov has become more pro-Ukraine/Zelensky. He needs to be on the winning side. Reporting indicates that Ukrainian hits inside Russia, and impacts on the Russian people from serious fuel shortages, especially diesel. Perhaps he now thinks Zelensky is the side to back.
Mike, this is the most detailed assessment and analysis I have seen of what a number of us have been suspecting. The Shoigu rumors are not new, as you know, and they may be central to our understanding of what is going on, as you also point out. Thank you so much for putting this all together.
An independent lens coupled with intelligent analysis. You’ll never get that from a 30 second spot on a worthless corporate nightly news spot. Keep up the good work.
This is very interesting reporting... It is hard to miss that Putin is now under siege because of his proclamations that he could conquer Ukraine in weeks or months and the war has not only gone on for years but Putin is running out of ground troops, Moscow is now being bombed and their oil infrastructure has been significantly damaged while NATO chooses to support Ukraine without the US. Putin now can't figure out how to get out of this war... sound familiar? With the fall of the Hungarian president to opposition... if Putin falls too Trump will really be in a panic.... as the saying goes.... "watch this space".
What the Russian nationalists see is, Vlad in his entire rule is trying to cozy up to the anglosaxons (can we join NATO? you can’t make this shit up, the gang was created to destroy Russia), good buddies with german upper echelon, and so on.
NATO’s dream came through, bombing Russia at will, while their lands are intact.
However, nobody will try to dethrone Vlad, simply he is entrenched with multiple layers of protection, that “would be attackers” are not even aware of.
Vlad will finish his therm, unfortunately for Russia. After that, who knows, maybe another Yeltsin in the making.
Nicely done Michael. As an investigator, I especially appreciate the “what to look for“ section. Time will tell and I look forward to hearing your next thoughts about this.
Any change in leadership means withdrawal from Ukraine. New leaders are not going to be saddled by Putin's mess.
Putin won't be able to sail his yacht outside Russia without being arrested.
Russia has allowed leaders to retire or die natural deaths since Stalin and Beria left the scene. There have been more assassinations and attempted assassinations of the top men in the USA than in the USSR/Russia since then.
Love it Michael. We’ll never get this kind of analysis and deep dive reporting from 30 second sound bites on the “nightly news”. Too bad more people aren’t listening or even interested. 30 second spots are all most people can handle, sadly.
Deep into the weeds doesn't begin to explain the half of it! Two questions you leave unaddressed are, (1) Why? and (2) What effect would each of the possible leadership changes have on the war in Ukraine?
Extremely interesting. Being serious here. If you were, let's say an analyst in France, which government would be easier to analyze - Trump's or Putin's ?
Really appreciate your analysis… especially when you are dissecting intelligence. Russia analysis is clearly a forte! I wonder what a shift like that would mean for 1) US relations and 2) Ukraine . Obviously a guess, but seems they could both be dramatically different.
A number of people asked -- and some pointed out that Patrushev is a hardliner, so how would that play. I'll repost one of the comments I made below--but this issomething that problably deserves a full post at some point.
.....Patrushev is unquestionably at least as hostile to Ukraine and the West as Putin. But “more hawkish” does not necessarily translate into an open-ended escalation of the same war. Patrushev is better understood as a security-state strategist: deeply ideological, but also transactional and focused on preserving Russian power.
A Patrushev-dominated leadership might intensify the war initially, especially if it blamed Shoigu and others for incompetence. But it might also conclude that Putin had become too personally invested to end a strategically and economically damaging conflict. In that case, the objective could be to escalate briefly, improve Russia’s leverage, then seek a deal with Washington that freezes Russian gains and sidelines Ukraine and Europe.
So yes, it could be very bad news—especially if it produced more competent military management. But the likely outcome is not necessarily “more war forever.” It could be a harder, more disciplined effort to secure Russia’s objectives through a combination of battlefield pressure and negotiation.
Re arranging the deck chairs doesn't mean the ship will stop sinking. Or that the new crew is going to be more competent than the old one. This reads like an effort to contain the blame and continue as before
Unfortunately, Patrushev is a hardliner on Ukraine—perhaps THE hardliner: Patrushev was the primary security counsel architect of the 2022 invasion. Patrushev is the one who assessed it would be a “3-day special military operation” and he, (along with the Kovalachuk brothers Yuri & Mikhail) are the hawkish triumvirate credited with convincing Putin to launch the full-scale invasion in the first place. They have a near-mystical conviction in Russia’s God-given destiny to control the “Eurasian” continent by re-establishing the “Ruskyy Mir” Russian/Soviet Empire & sphere of influence — and so see conquering & re-absorbing Ukraine as an existential necessity for Russia.
Since the Russian invasion floundered and stretched on longer than planned, Patrushev has been widely seen as a leading war hawk pushing for Putin to legally declare a full “war” (rather than the “limited Special Military Operation” it currently is declared as under Russian federal law,) which would give the Russian president power to call up a full “general mobilization” of the entire Russian population to surge troops into Ukraine.
It’s not entirely clear if that remains Patrushev’s goal—but Ukraine’s intelligence directorate reportedly has confirmed that Russian MOD is planning a full military mobilization following the Russian federal elections this September (2 months from now.)
It’s also not clear if Patrushev would be willing to broker a peace deal due to the fuel crises Ukraine has newly imposed on them…but he certainly cannot be trusted any more than Putin can — It was Patrushev who openly mocked US and western leaders for “ludicrous fear-mongering” about an imminent invasion of Ukraine just hours before Russia Invaded: “They are talking about a threat, that Russia is threatening Ukraine. Complete madness... We do not want war, we do not need it at all.”
That’s a solid breakdown. Terrible news, but good to be aware of. Thanks.
Wow, thank you for that assessment, J Allen Kaiser. That is not great news at all. On the other hand, if Putin were out, I wonder how much deference the US admin would give Patrushev and a new regime, as it appears Trump bends the knee for Putin and does that with few others.
I think a shift is already occurring in Trump's attitude toward Ukraine and Zelensky.
Attn. Michael; I hope that you follow up on Suzaane G's question regarding what this MAY mean for Russia's war on Ukraine. Does your source hint at what the usurpers lean toward and MAY do regarding the war?
And again thanks for the deep dive into this. Will be interesting.........
Changing the leadership will not stop Ukraine from strangling the Russian economy. What we are seeing is a rapid acceleration of pain being inflicted and if an additional 20% of refining capability is achieved within the next few weeks, it may be impossible for any new Russian leadership group to go on the offensive. Time is not Russia’s friend. Will September be too far away?
Wow, Michael, this is a most interesting post and your analysis is like reading a spy novel! You really have a talent for creating succinct and easily understood narrative. THANK YOU, so much!!
I know I’ve said this before many times, but I am so appreciative of your analytical style, your restraint, and your clarity of language. I am so tired of presumptions and preemptive reactions. A whisper isn’t a done deal, and I’m tired of reading slop that treats it like it is.
With so much breathless hot takes out there, it is a great relief to read your analysis. Thanks.
Thank you for this assessment, Michael. Fascinating reading! Question, if I may (and it's pure speculation at this point - if Putin is "retired" by the apparatus, what becomes of tRump/Krasnov?
What occurred to me as I read this, and before when I read Jay Kuo's take on conditions on the ground in the Russian war on Ukraine, is that this info may help explain why Krasnov has become more pro-Ukraine/Zelensky. He needs to be on the winning side. Reporting indicates that Ukrainian hits inside Russia, and impacts on the Russian people from serious fuel shortages, especially diesel. Perhaps he now thinks Zelensky is the side to back.
Krasnov will always be loyal to Putin but needs to appear to be neutral. It will only end with them.
Mike, this is the most detailed assessment and analysis I have seen of what a number of us have been suspecting. The Shoigu rumors are not new, as you know, and they may be central to our understanding of what is going on, as you also point out. Thank you so much for putting this all together.
Thanks Chuck. Nice to hear from you. Pls let me know if you come across anything interesting.
Interesting reading indeed! During his career with NATO and UN my husband has had meetings etc etc with Shoigu!
An independent lens coupled with intelligent analysis. You’ll never get that from a 30 second spot on a worthless corporate nightly news spot. Keep up the good work.
This is very interesting reporting... It is hard to miss that Putin is now under siege because of his proclamations that he could conquer Ukraine in weeks or months and the war has not only gone on for years but Putin is running out of ground troops, Moscow is now being bombed and their oil infrastructure has been significantly damaged while NATO chooses to support Ukraine without the US. Putin now can't figure out how to get out of this war... sound familiar? With the fall of the Hungarian president to opposition... if Putin falls too Trump will really be in a panic.... as the saying goes.... "watch this space".
A hardliner like Patrushev would have better cover than others when it comes to pulling out of Ukraine. Like Nixon and China.
And let the hegemon dominate Russia’s frontyard?
What the Russian nationalists see is, Vlad in his entire rule is trying to cozy up to the anglosaxons (can we join NATO? you can’t make this shit up, the gang was created to destroy Russia), good buddies with german upper echelon, and so on.
NATO’s dream came through, bombing Russia at will, while their lands are intact.
However, nobody will try to dethrone Vlad, simply he is entrenched with multiple layers of protection, that “would be attackers” are not even aware of.
Vlad will finish his therm, unfortunately for Russia. After that, who knows, maybe another Yeltsin in the making.
Simply a matter of recognizing reality, that the cost of continuing is too great. That doesn't mean Russia can't rearm and fight again later.
Nicely done Michael. As an investigator, I especially appreciate the “what to look for“ section. Time will tell and I look forward to hearing your next thoughts about this.
Any change in leadership means withdrawal from Ukraine. New leaders are not going to be saddled by Putin's mess.
Putin won't be able to sail his yacht outside Russia without being arrested.
Russia has allowed leaders to retire or die natural deaths since Stalin and Beria left the scene. There have been more assassinations and attempted assassinations of the top men in the USA than in the USSR/Russia since then.
Love it Michael. We’ll never get this kind of analysis and deep dive reporting from 30 second sound bites on the “nightly news”. Too bad more people aren’t listening or even interested. 30 second spots are all most people can handle, sadly.
Well in this little corner of the internet people seem to have very good willingness to go deep. And I’m very appreciative of that.
Fascinating! The world leadership certainly appears to be in a major transition phase.
Deep into the weeds doesn't begin to explain the half of it! Two questions you leave unaddressed are, (1) Why? and (2) What effect would each of the possible leadership changes have on the war in Ukraine?
Extremely interesting. Being serious here. If you were, let's say an analyst in France, which government would be easier to analyze - Trump's or Putin's ?