Walz-Vance Debate Entertaining, But Likely Less Impactful Than Middle East War, Helene Aftermath, and Dockworkers’ Strike

The debate, held in the shadow of an escalating Mideast war, likely didn't change much.

Last night’s debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz was substantive, civil, and unlikely to leave much of a lasting mark on the outcome of the 2024 election. JD Vance clearly did himself some favors, presenting a poised, “kinder, gentler” version of the MAGA agenda that played well with his base while softening his appeal for undecided voters. He may have positioned himself as the future of MAGA — something many of us thought would happen when he was chosen as VP, but have doubted as we watched his rollout. His strategic approach avoided the usual inflammatory rhetoric, allowing him to make his case without alienating the more moderate viewers, and he came across as poised, intelligent, and empathetic—a kinder, gentler MAGA on display. Wholly inauthentic, but still, credit where it’s due, he performed well.

Tim Walz, on the other hand, stumbled out of the gate. Early on, his answers lacked the clarity and punch needed to grab hold of the debate and he completely botched the Tiannenmen Square question—one which was entirely predictable and for which he should have had a clear answer redy. However, as the evening progressed, Walz found his footing, largely holding his own and doing little harm overall, even if his performance wasn’t particularly memorable. And he did achieve what is probably the standout moment from the debate — during an exchange about January 6, where he landed a sharp rebuttal that is almost certain to show up in a future Harris campaign ad. While it was an effective and pointed moment, it came too late in the evening when many viewers had likely already tuned out. But it was a great moment that crystallized the reality that if Vance were the VP and Trump lost the election but claimed otherwise — there would be no Mike Pence moment to save democracy. Whether this ends up mattering much will depend on the Harris campaign’s ability to amplify that clip across social media and airwaves.

Meanwhile ….. Iran, Helene, and the Dockworker’s Strike

In the grand scheme, though, three other recent events are likely to eclipse the impact of the debate: the Middle East war, the aftermath of Helene, and the dockworkers’ strike.

The war between Iran and Israel has shaken global geopolitics and thrust foreign policy to the center of the Biden-Harris administration’s campaign challenges. Trump, ever the opportunist, will likely hammer home that such conflicts did not occur during his presidency, claiming it was his “projection of strength” that kept these kinds of wars at bay. The Biden-Harris team will need to navigate this narrative, emphasizing the diplomatic efforts they’ve made while countering Trump’s claims of invulnerability. Whether this global instability works for or against them will depend largely on how the administration responds in the coming weeks.

Then there’s the political danger posed by the aftermath of Helene. Any perceived missteps in the federal government’s response could leave Biden-Harris vulnerable to attacks of incompetence or indifference. In times of disaster, quick, decisive action is critical, and the public’s perception of federal involvement—or lack thereof—will be closely watched. Biden must tread carefully here, as any delay or confusion in relief efforts could be used to undermine confidence in his leadership.

Lastly, the dockworkers’ strike presents an ongoing domestic challenge. With pressure mounting on the administration to intervene and end the strike, Biden and Harris find themselves in a precarious position. They must balance their relationship with organized labor while also preventing the strike’s economic impact from ballooning into a broader issue that could harm everyday Americans. A misstep here could strain the administration’s ties with labor unions, a core constituency, but doing too little could also fuel discontent among workers already frustrated by economic inequalities.

So….while last night’s debate was good political theater and fodder for everyone following the election closely, keep an eye on Iran, the Helene aftermath, and the dockworker’s strike. These external events will likely weigh more heavily on the 2024 campaign and election results. Voters will be looking for steady leadership through these crises, and will be vulnerable to Trump’s inevitable claims the world was calmer, safer, and mroe stable when he was President.