TrumpMusk vs. the Federal Government: How Worried Should You Be?

Does "break glass in emergency" apply? Or not yet? A realistic appraisal.

The Confusing Moment We’re In

I’ll admit it. I’m confused. How outraged should I be? How fearful should I be? Are we actually sliding into the “end of democracy” and authoritarianism? Or are those concerns overblown? I’ll admit I’m concerned. But is the sky really falling on American democracy? Or does it just feel that way?

I am struggling to penetrate the blitzkrieg of craziness to gain some understanding of just what’s at risk. Every day my inbox is filled suth Substackers screaming “the end is near.” Is it? How worried should we be?

Unprecedented Executive Actions by Trump and Musk

I’m trying to make sense of:

Purges and Power Grabs: Starting with illegally firing inspectors general and prosecutors, Trump’s actions reveal a clear pattern: dismantling oversight mechanisms that might constrain him. The Justice Department has seen politicization at an unprecedented scale, with efforts to purge the FBI and install loyalists at every level. Many of these actions are against existing law, and are being challenged in the courts. One thought: The vigorous court challenges are a sign of pushback that’s comforting, as far as it goes. But how far will it go? My provisional conclusion is that the courts are the only forum at present where the pushback is really happening. If it succeeds, what then? Will Trump abide by Supreme Court decisions if Barret and Roberts vote according to the constitution and stop the worst of what he’s doing? Or will he ignore it? What enforcement mechanisms would work in that situation, where a President openly defies rulings of the Supreme Court? Would Trump actually do that? For sure, if we get to that point - -where there are Supreme Court Rulings constraining Trump and he ignores them, then yes, the sky is falling.

What might that look like? Look, let’s say the court’s definitively establish it’s illegal for Trump to disband USAID, only Congress can do that. Trump is told he can’t fire all the employees. But Musk can simply use his tech bros to fix it so the employee’s ID’s won’t swipe; they can’t access their computers. Would they do that? This is an imaginable “known unknown” but we don’t know for sure whether it would happen or not, if the Supreme Court rules against Trump.

Musk’s Role in the Information Ecosystem: Musk’s acquisition of Twitter (now X) has turned the platform into a propaganda tool for the far right. Have you actually followed Musk’s account? It’s utterly incredible the conspiracy bs he’s putting out to tens of millions of followers who pick it up and amplify it. By reinstating banned extremists, suppressing dissenting voices, and throttling the reach of mainstream media, Musk has reshaped the digital public square in ways that echo and amplify Trump’s broader political agenda. His moves to dismantle content moderation and dismiss regulatory concerns have emboldened bad actors and made it harder to distinguish fact from fiction in real time. This problem— how a normal person can distinguish fact from fiction — is a fundamental part of the landscape that emboldens Trump.

Where is Trump Headed with This?

The sheer number of controversial moves ensures that only a fraction will be effectively challenged in court. The strategy appears to be:

Flood the Zone: By initiating multiple legal and political battles simultaneously, Trump overwhelms watchdogs, journalists, and the legal system itself. With finite resources, it becomes impossible to challenge every dubious action, allowing many to go unchecked.

Normalize the Extreme: What was once unthinkable becomes merely the latest headline. By making each new scandal blend into the background noise, Trump wears down public resistance and makes it harder to mobilize effective opposition.

Dare the Courts to Stop Him: Trump has shown a willingness to take actions he knows will be legally challenged, banking on delays, judicial uncertainty, and the possibility of a more favorable Supreme Court ruling. In many cases, the immediate political impact is what matters, not the eventual legal outcome.

It’s a Stress Test—Will the System Hold?

So far, the primary pushback has come from the courts, not Congress. While legal challenges are mounting, they face serious constraints:

Volume Overload: There are only so many legal organizations, watchdog groups, and government lawyers available to challenge Trump’s actions. Some cases will slip through the cracks simply because of resource limitations.

Congressional Compliance: With a Republican-controlled House and a weak, divided Senate, Congress shows little inclination to assert its own authority. Instead of acting as a check, it is largely serving as a rubber stamp.

Democratic Response: Democratic politicians are making noise, but will it translate into meaningful opposition? Rhetoric alone is insufficient. If the opposition fails to use every available tool—including aggressive oversight, state-level actions, and creative legal challenges—the resistance may prove toothless.

How Do We Know Whether Democracy is Holding?

This is the key question: what are the warning signs that tell us whether democracy is still functioning or if we are in an emergency requiring drastic action?

Rule of Law: Are the courts still enforcing constitutional constraints, or are rulings increasingly shaped by political loyalty rather than legal precedent?

Free Elections: Are we seeing attempts to subvert the election process through voter suppression, electoral manipulation, or refusal to accept results?

Institutional Defections: Are civil servants, military leaders, and judges standing up to unlawful directives, or are they falling in line?

Media Independence: Are major news organizations still able to report freely, or are they facing legal and financial attacks designed to silence dissent?

If all these indicators start blinking red, then we are in crisis mode. If they are holding, however shakily, then democracy—while battered—is still intact.

Conclusion: I don’t have a conclusion but I promise this. I’m focused on understanding the fine line between vigilance and panic. I welcome other, perhaps more alarmed, views. But where I am today, Super Bowl Sunday 2025, is this: I’m deeply concerned, but not paralyzed by fear. The fight is far from over, and the institutions of democracy—though under siege—have not yet fallen. There are signs they might fall, and other signs they might hold. I will offer encouragement, not that it matters much, to the forces opposing the creep toward authoritarianism.