Reality Check: Harris's Euphoric August is Officially Over; Stressful September is Here

Times/Sienna Poll puts a button on the fact that the Harris's August surge has likely plateaued and Trump is showing resilience. Debate looms large.

I’ll admit that during “euphoric August” I had that “2008 feeling” — the sense that Harris’s surging poll numbers and pure foulness of Donald Trump might lead to a runaway victory a la Obama’s 330 vote electoral blowout in 2008. But for the last week or so I’ve been seeing warning signs that this will not happen,

and now I think it’s time to admit that the Harris August surge has plateaued and “Stressful September” is here. The new Times/Sienna Poll, just out, is the strongest indicator yet that the August surge has dissipated and a new neck-and-neck reality has set in. It shouldn’t be a surprise but I admit to feelig disappointed. And challenged. Dems need to work like never before to communicate the message and get out the vote.

Trends Matter More than Raw Numbers

I’ve been speculating that this was happening for the last week or so and reaction among dems has generally been “polls don’t matter” — something no one was saying when the polls were encouraging. I disagree. At a minimum polls reveal trends and that alone is signficant. The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over Kamala Harris, 48% to 47%, marking a noticeable shift in the race as Harris’s numbers stall and Trump’s numbers improve following a period of stagnation. This is a significant development from the previous poll in August, where Harris had a modest lead nationally, as well as in battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The new results suggest her momentum has slowed, and Trump has regained ground, particularly on economic issues  .

Cohn, Sabato React

Nate Cohn reacted quickly, noting of Harris: “her gains with younger and nonwhite voters haven’t fully compensated for her struggles with older voters and those without a college degree, where Trump has maintained a significant advantage.” Cohn noted that Trump’s appeal to working-class voters, especially on economic matters, remains strong. “Even though voters don’t think the economy is great, a large portion of them still see Trump as better equipped to handle it,” he added  .

Expert opinions reflect a mixed outlook for Harris. While her appeal to younger voters and key Democratic demographics remains solid, experts like Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics caution that, “the economy continues to be a decisive issue, and Trump is seen by many as the change candidate.” Sabato adds that “if Harris doesn’t close the gap on economic trust, Trump’s resurgence could continue, especially among swing voters.”

The shift in polling numbers has led some analysts to question whether Harris’s support has plateaued. According to the Times/Siena poll, voters’ views on Harris remain divided, with 46% viewing her favorably, an improvement from earlier in the year but still behind Trump’s 48% favorability rating  .

The trends suggest that while Harris successfully energized parts of the Democratic base, Trump’s economic messaging is resonating with voters who remain pessimistic about the nation’s direction. With battleground states still in play, the upcoming weeks will be critical for both candidates as they try to solidify their positions before the election.

Many Voters Need More Info on Harris’s Policies

The New York Times/Siena poll also indicates that a significant portion of voters feel they need to know more about Kamala Harris’s policies. This could provide her with potential headroom to grow, especially among undecided voters who are still forming opinions about her candidacy. Nate Cohn noted, “Harris’s challenge is both a liability and an opportunity — while some voters remain unsure of her policies, it could mean she’s yet to peak.” This uncertainty suggests that Harris has space to strengthen her support base as voters become more familiar with her platform, particularly on economic and foreign policy issues.

On the other hand, Trump’s polling at 48% could signal a cap on his potential growth. His core supporters are highly engaged, but many swing voters are less favorable towards him, especially given his polarizing past. Analysts like Larry Sabato suggest that while Trump benefits from strong views on immigration and the economy, “he may have less room to grow because of entrenched opinions about his presidency.” This presents a potential ceiling, as Harris could pull ahead if she successfully defines her policy positions and appeals to the undecided or swing voters who currently view Trump unfavorably.

Debate Looms Large, Especially for Harris

The poll results highlight the fact that in the September 10 debate, Harris will have a critical opportunity to address the significant portion of voters who still feel uncertain about her policies. This debate could be a turning point for Harris, as she needs to capitalize on the undecided voters who have indicated they want to know more about her positions on key issues such as the economy, immigration, and healthcare. As Nate Cohn put it: “Harris has a real chance to convert those uncertainties into support by clearly outlining her vision for the country.”

The debate will also give her the platform to highlight the contrasts between her and Trump, particularly in areas where she holds an advantage, such as reproductive rights and democratic values . Given Trump’s more stable support, Harris really needs to use this opportunity to expand her base, especially among swing voters who remain undecided. If Harris can effectively articulate her policy vision, the debate could be a catalyst for growth, while Trump will need to defend his record and attempt to widen his appeal beyond his core base.