Post-Election: Pondering the Imponderables -- What Just Happened?

I have far more questions than answers. Here are a few.

I’m still in shock so bear with me. As much as I knew, and acknowledged in advance, that Trump could win decisively—I just didn’t believe it could happen. It was, for me, a “possibility not to be excluded” that things could break Trump’s way. But in my heart and the working parts of my brain I just didn’t believe it. So now I’m struggling to understand what happened and have more questions than answers. I’m going to start my therapy process by posing the questions.

How in the World Did 13 Million Dems Stay Home?

This just boggles my mind. Joe Biden got 81m votes and Kamala Harris appears to be on track for about 68m vots. WTF? And Trump is on track get about the same vote total he got in 2020. I just don’t get this. In 2020 the “raise the alarm” aspect was high, but as far as I could tell it was just as high in 2024, meaning the idea of Trump getting four more years from 2024-2028 was just as threatening as the idea of Trump getting four more years from 2020-2024. Obviously not, but …

I’m aware of many of the supposed explanations. There was a unique dynamic at play in 2020. Biden’s campaign then was less about enthusiasm for the candidate himself and more about fear of a second Trump term. Anxiety, it seems, was a powerful motivator. But come on. Was that anxiety really so much stronger then than now? And if so, why? The Harris campaign was incredibly organized, with robust “Get Out the Vote” efforts targeting every corner of the Democratic base, yet somehow, it didn’t translate into turnout. How could she have $1B, smart people everywhere, and fall 20% short in voter turnout? Meanwhile, Trump seemed to have outsourced his entire ground game, relying heavily on social media influencers and conservative groups. Did that approach work better than we thought?

Where did all the women go?

In the months leading up to the election, every indicator suggested that Harris would enjoy a substantial gender gap advantage. Polls consistently showed women, particularly suburban women, favoring Harris by significant margins, with motivations ranging from reproductive rights to healthcare access. Yet, on Election Day, this anticipated surge among women simply didn’t materialize. What happened?

Did other concerns, like the economy, start to overshadow issues that seemed vital before? Or was there an underlying reluctance among women voters that polling failed to capture? The numbers show that women’s turnout was lower than expected and less enthusiastic than in 2020, leaving many analysts scratching their heads.

Why Did Almost Every State Move to the Right?

This election didn’t just see battleground states shift. Nearly every state moved to the right, including traditional blue strongholds like New York and New Jersey, which saw shifts of several percentage points toward the GOP. Even border towns in Texas flipped dramatically; all the Rio Grand border towns went to Trump and one border town reportedly shifted nearly 60 points from blue to red.

Did the Economy Really Matter That Much More Than Abortion?

The 2022 election results sent a message that abortion really matters. What happened? In the final months, it seemed that issues like abortion rights would dominate for many, especially with the post-Dobbs energy still fresh. But on Election Day, it’s clear that the economy squashed it, with voters listing inflation, job security, and cost of living as their top priorities. It appears that economic anxieties overrode social issues to a degree that took many by surprise. Does this mean that the issue of abortion, while significant, wasn’t the motivating factor that polling and pundits believed? Did economic fears drive voters to make choices they might not have otherwise? If so, this election might be an indicator of how enduring economic distress reshapes priorities across party lines.

What Happened to the Youth Vote?

The youth vote was expected to be decisive this year, with Gen Z and Millennial voters motivated by concerns over climate change, social justice, and reproductive rights. Yet, in key states, youth turnout was shockingly low. Why didn’t the anticipated youth wave come through? And why did so many vote for Trump, especially males? Was it cynicism about the political process? A sense that their votes wouldn’t change the status quo? Or did these voters simply not connect with the Harris campaign’s messaging? And somehow found Trump entertaining, even appealing? The youth vote is often unpredictable, but this year’s low engagement was surprising even by historical standards. And why didn’t we see that coming?

Why Was There Such a Shift in Hispanic and Latino Voters?

Perhaps one of the most surprising trends was the shift among Hispanic and Latino voters, especially in areas like South Texas and Miami-Dade County. Regions that were once Democratic strongholds turned red, with Hispanic and Latino voters showing a level of support for the GOP that was unprecedented.

The extent of this movement is staggering. Was this part of a broader realignment, or a unique blip driven by this particular election’s issues and dynamics? And why did this shift happen in some of the bluest states that seemed immune to recent Republican gains? The statistics are there, but the reasoning feels elusive. I’ve seen theories — that most of the Latino voters in those towns are second and third generation and the voted as Americans, bothered by the border chaos, rather than as Latino-Americans in solidarity with the immigrants. I can understand that — tut how did the polling miss that?

Is this shift temporary, or are we witnessing a realignment? Were economic issues a deciding factor, or did cultural values resonate more with the GOP’s messaging? This shift could reshape political strategies in these communities for years to come.

Is America More Divided Than Ever – or Just Polarized in Different Ways?

After such a volatile election, it’s natural to ask whether our country is more divided than ever. But is it? Or is there an emerging “new America” that Trump personifies? This scares the hell out of me because I don’t see myself as part of Trump’s America. But now I’m clearly in the minority and if youi’re reading this, you probably are too. I’m really struck by how the pace of change and the movement toward chaos has been accelerating on every front. Climate change and the ripple effects of that; the pandemic and all thep problems for all the governments in digging out from that - resulting in election results like the ones we just had here, in country after country. We traditionally talk of a pendulum that swings back and forth but thus feels different. I’ll be honest. My mind constantly goes back to 1933 Germany and how that transition wasn’t just a swing in one direction — it was a shift that led to a global convulsion. I’m not saying Trump is Hitler; but I’m worried that America is Germany 1933 and Trump is whoever he is, and this is now Trump’s America.