"Harris Will Win" Predicts Forecasting Legend Allen Lichtman

For 40 years, Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University, has been accurately predicting U.S. presidential elections using his “13 Keys to the White House” model. Here is what the keys say.

For more than 40 years, Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University, has been accurately predicting U.S. presidential elections using his “13 Keys to the White House” model. This method, developed in 1981 with Russian scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, ignores polls and focuses on a series of 13 true/false statements about the party in power. Lichtman’s model has correctly called almost every election since 1984, with the exception of the controversial 2000 race.

Today, Lichtman made his call: Kamala Harris will win the presidency, keeping the Democrats in the White House.

How the 13 Keys Work

Lichtman’s model revolves around 13 true/false statements, known as “keys.” If six or more of these keys are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose. If five or fewer are false, the incumbent party wins.

According to Lichtman, eight of the 13 keys favor the Democrats in 2024, while three favor Donald Trump, with two keys still open.

The 13 Keys and Their True/False Status for 2024

“True” means the key favors the incumbent party; “False” means it favors the challenger. My comments are labeled “MS Comments.”

1. Midterm Gains: False

Democrats did better than expected in the 2022 midterms but still lost House seats, so this is False and favors Trump.

2. Incumbency: False

President Joe Biden decided not to run, which costs the Democrats this key. (Comment: This is counterintuitive since everyone can see the dems do better with Harris — but a key is a key is a key.)

3. Primary Contest: True

The Democrats united behind Vice President Kamala Harris without a significant primary challenge.

4. Third Party: True

No third-party candidate is polling above 10%, particularly after RFK Jr. dropped out of the race.

5. Short-Term Economy: True

Despite economic concerns, the U.S. is not currently in a recession. (MS Comment: The two economic keys are worrisome since this year there is a large gap between the reality of the numbers, which is favorable, and the perception, which is negative. These two worry me.)

6. Long-Term Economy: True

Economic growth during Biden’s term has been better than the previous two administrations. (Comment: See above.)

7. Policy Change: True

Major legislation passed during Biden’s presidency, including infrastructure and climate bills.

8. Social Unrest: True

While there have been some protests, they haven’t been widespread or sustained enough to turn this key. (MS Comment: Not completely sure that this is the correct read on this, due to the Gaza protests, but overall it’s probably right to say there has been major social unrest.)

9. White House Scandal: True

Despite Republican efforts, no major scandal has tainted the Biden administration. (MS Comment: Lichtman says that for a scandal to be true it has to have at least some bipartisan support and it has to implicate the President, so he says this is a False.)

10. Foreign/Military Failure: Undecided

No significant failure yet, but events could still change.

11. Foreign/Military Success: Undecided

While there have been some diplomatic successes, this key is not definitively true yet.

12. Incumbent Charisma: False

Kamala Harris is not considered a once-in-a-generation charismatic figure.

13. Challenger Charisma: True

Donald Trump, though popular with his base, is not broadly considered a charismatic figure.

What This Means

Based on this analysis, Lichtman predicts that Harris will secure the presidency in 2024. She has 8 of 14 Keys so even if Trump gets the two undecided keys, she would still end up with 8 keys to 6 for Trump.

Final Thoughts

Lichtman’s predictions have been remarkably accurate for decades. I still worry that this year could be different. If the two economic keys are wrong, and the two undecided keys go to Trump ….. so I still worry. But I’d rather be hearing this than the opposite.