Deeper Look: Understanding (and Debunking) MAGA Claims that the FBI Reported Crime Stats Are Wrong
When they cite the "National Crime Victimization Survey", they're still wrong and here's why.
Deeper Look: Understanding (and Debunking) MAGA Claims that the FBI Reported Crime Stats Are Wrong
Trump and MAGA supporters claim that the FBI’s crime data is inaccurate or deliberately underestimates crime. These assertions frequently focus on the perceived rise in violent crime and the idea that the FBI isn’t telling the full story. When pressed, they site the Department of Justice National Crime Vicitmization Survey (NCVS). However, when we take a deeper look at the data and compare it with broader crime reports from the NCVS, the story becomes much clearer and their claims fall apart. Let’s take a deeper look and break down why these claims don’t hold up.
The FBI’s Crime Reporting System
The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program is the gold standard for tracking crimes reported to law enforcement agencies. Over the years, it has undergone transitions, such as the move to the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) in 2021, which provides more detailed data.
The NCVS and the Importance of Unreported Crimes
The NCVS, on the other hand, collects data on both reported and unreported crimes by surveying households. This broader perspective captures crimes that victims never report to the police. Importantly, the NCVS shows higher crime numbers because of this, but it doesn’t negate the downward trend shown by both systems over time.
Addressing the Claims: FBI vs. NCVS Data
1. FBI Data Captures Actual Crime Trends:
• MAGA claims focus on the idea that the FBI’s crime data misses a lot of crime. While it’s true that the FBI only reports crimes reported to law enforcement, this doesn’t mean their data is inaccurate. It accurately reflects reported crime, and for decades, it has shown long-term trends of declining crime.
2. The NCVS Data Supports Similar Trends:
• The NCVS includes unreported crimes, which can create a higher number of victimizations. Even so, the NCVS data generally aligns with the FBI’s reports in showing that violent crime rates have been falling for most of the past two decades, aside from a temporary spike in 2020 during the pandemic.
The 2020 Spike: A Temporary Anomaly
• 2020 saw a sharp rise in crime due to a combination of factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic, economic hardship, and social unrest. Both the FBI and NCVS recorded this spike. (Note: This is during Trump’s term and we’re giving him a pass because facts matter. Do you think he would do the same?)
• However, since then, crime has been decreasing steadily again, a fact that both the FBI and NCVS data support.
Comparison of Data from 2017–2023
Here’s a look at the trends over the last seven years from both the FBI and NCVS:
Key Trends:
1. FBI Reported Crime (2017–2020):
• Under Trump, violent crime decreased steadily in 2017, 2018, and 2019, but in 2020, there was a notable 8.6% spike in violent crime. This spike was likely due to the unique circumstances surrounding the pandemic, economic strain, and social unrest.
2. NCVS Reported + Unreported Crime (2017–2020):
• The NCVS shows a substantial increase in violent victimizations from 2017 to 2018 (up 20%) and continued elevated levels in 2019 and 2020, which aligns with the broader perception of heightened crime during the pandemic.
3. FBI Reported Crime (2021–2023):
• Under Biden, violent crime decreased slightly in 2021 and continued its decline into 2022 and 2023, suggesting a stabilization after the pandemic-era spike. By 2023, violent crime had dropped by an estimated 3.0%.
4. NCVS Reported + Unreported Crime (2021–2023):
• NCVS data also suggests declining victimization rates during the Biden administration, although full 2022 and 2023 data are not yet available. Early indications from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) suggest a decline in unreported crime as well.
Analysis:
• Trump Administration (2017–2020): During the Trump administration, violent crime (FBI data) saw steady declines until a notable increase in 2020, likely due to the pandemic and societal disruptions. The NCVS data reveals that, even as FBI-reported crime fell, unreported crimes contributed to a perception of higher victimization rates in 2018 and 2020.
• Biden Administration (2021–2023): Violent crime has shown a steady decline during the Biden years, both in FBI data and in early NCVS data. This suggests a stabilization following the pandemic spike in 2020.
While there was a temporary rise in violent crime during the last year of Trump’s administration, the overall trend under Biden has been a return to pre-2020 levels. The FBI’s official statistics (reported crimes) and NCVS data (reported + unreported) both show this broader stabilization, albeit with different emphases on the extent of the victimization.
Conclusion:
Overall, there isn’t a drastically different trend between the two administrations regarding violent crime. The key difference is the 2020 spike during Trump’s final year, which has since been reversing under Biden. The NCVS data reflects higher levels of unreported crime, but it generally tracks similar declining trends over the long term as the FBI data.