Deeper Look: Harris’ Debate Bump Falls Flat; Trump’s Ground Game MIA, Both Sides Have Plenty to Worry About

Post debate polls disappoint dems; meanwhile where is Trump's Ground Game?

It’s official. Kamala Harris got no more than a 1 point bump out of a debate where she destroyed Donald Trump. That has dems worried, as well it should. Meanwhile — where is Trump’s ground game? We keep hearing he’s outsourced it. But now repubs in battleground states are asking “where’s the beef?” as they see little of no signs of a ground game for Trump. Let’s take a deeper look:

The Debate Bump That Wasn’t

The debate was viewed by a whopping 67 million Americans, making it second only to the Super Bowl in 2024, gave Harris an opportunity to showcase her readiness for the presidency. She took Trump to the woodshed, by all reasonable accounts (other than’ Trump’s own fantasy interpretation ). However, now that we’re almost two weeks out from the debate, the returns are in — the polling bump fell short, with NBC and CBS polls reflecting a mid-single-digit lead for Harris, not enough to change the trajectory of this close race. Here are some swing state specifics:

Arizona — 11 Electoral Votes

• FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +0.5 (On Sept. 10: Trump +1)

• RealClearPolitics average: Trump +1.6 (On Sept. 10: Trump +1.5)

• Silver Bulletin average: Trump +0.7 (On Sept. 10: Trump +1.9)

• 2020 result: Biden +0.3

Georgia — 16 Electoral Votes

• FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1.0 (On Sept. 10: Trump +0.8)

• RealClearPolitics average: Trump +1.7 (On Sept. 10: Trump +0.3)

• Silver Bulletin average: Trump +0.8 (On Sept. 10: Trump +0.7)

• 2020 result: Biden +0.2

Michigan —15 electoral votes

• FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +2.7 (On Sept. 10: Harris +1.7)

• RealClearPolitics average: Harris +1.7 (On Sept. 10: Harris +1.2)

• Silver Bulletin average: Harris +2.5 (On Sept. 10: Harris +1.6)

• 2020 result: Biden +2.8

Nevada — 6 electoral votes

• FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +0.8 (On Sept. 10: Trump +0.1)

• RealClearPolitics average: Harris +0.2 (On Sept. 10: Harris +0.6)

• Silver Bulletin average: Harris +1.2 (On Sept. 10: Harris +0.2)

• 2020 result: Biden +2.4

North Carolina -16 electoral votes

• FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +0.1 (On Sept. 10: Tied)

• RealClearPolitics average: Trump +0.1 (On Sept. 10: Trump +0.1)

• Silver Bulletin average: Trump +0.1 (On Sept. 10: Harris +0.1)

• 2020 result: Trump +1.3

Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes)

• FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +1.5 (On Sept. 10: Harris +0.5)

• RealClearPolitics average: Harris +0.7 (On Sept. 10: Tied)

• Silver Bulletin average: Harris +1.5 (On Sept. 10: Harris +0.3)

• 2020 result: Biden +1.2

Meanwhile, Trump’s Ground Game is MIA

On the Republican side, concerns mount as swing state activists report a conspicuous absence of Trump’s ground game. Traditionally, canvassing teams play a critical role in getting out the vote, particularly among less likely voters. But many GOP officials in key states like Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada say they’ve seen little to no presence from the America PAC, a group supported by Elon Musk and tasked with canvassing on Trump’s behalf. In some cases, canvassing teams were only deployed in the final weeks, while in others, key personnel changes disrupted efforts.

In Michigan, a pivotal battleground where Trump lost by just under 160,000 votes in 2020, Republican organizers have raised alarms about the lack of voter outreach. For example, Oakland County GOP field director Nate Wilkowski noted, “I haven’t seen anybody” from America PAC, raising concerns about whether Trump’s campaign is missing opportunities to mobilize supporters.

America PAC’s efforts in seven swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—are under scrutiny, especially after its Nevada-based canvassing company, September Group, was fired just weeks before Election Day.

Trump’s reliance on PACs comes amid legal allowances for greater coordination with super PACs on canvassing efforts, freeing up the candidate’s resources for other aspects of the campaign. Still, reports of scattered canvassing efforts have sparked questions about whether Trump’s approach can deliver in close states.

Harris’s Ground Game Seems Strong - but How Strong

Meanwhile, Harris’ team is focusing on a robust on-the-ground operation, with over 2,200 staffers spread across more than 300 offices in the seven most critical states. Despite outspending Trump by a 2-to-1 margin on ads, the Democrats face the daunting task of converting enthusiasm into votes, especially with Harris’ underwhelming polling bump post-debate.

Kamala Harris’ ground game significantly outpaces Trump’s in swing states, relying on a well-coordinated network of over 2,200 paid staff spread across more than 328 offices in the seven key battlegrounds: Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. By contrast, Trump’s campaign has only about 30,000 volunteer captains nationwide and around 2,500 paid canvassers. Harris’ campaign also collaborates with labor groups for independent canvassing, providing a robust infrastructure to mobilize voters, while Trump’s reliance on external PACs, like America PAC, has been inconsistent.

In Michigan, Harris’ presence is particularly strong, with multiple offices and staff targeting both rural and urban areas, while Trump’s America PAC reportedly only began canvassing in late August. This disparity is evident across other battleground states like Arizona and Pennsylvania, where Harris’ local offices work independently and in collaboration with grassroots organizations, while Trump leans heavily on outsourced canvassing through groups like Turning Point USA and the Faith and Freedom Coalition.

In Georgia, Harris’ team has focused on mobilizing Black and suburban voters, expanding on the efforts that helped flip the state in 2020. Trump’s ground game, meanwhile, has struggled to replicate the kind of coordinated effort seen in Harris’ campaign.

Both parties are now bracing for the sprint to Election Day, with turnout efforts more crucial than ever as the race remains razor-thin. Republicans fear Trump’s reliance on outside groups might fall short, while Democrats worry that Harris’ polling gains aren’t enough to secure a decisive victory.

One thing for sure — dems are doing the work. Will it be enough?